Beijing requires reading according to the script! If Trump doesn’t pay, trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia and China may change

U.S. President Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin originally had the opportunity to hold trilateral talks during the APEC summit in November, but the United States and China disagreed on the format of the talks. Beijing hopes that the three will finalize the agenda in advance and take turns reading prepared speeches, while the Trump administration hopes to retain more space for impromptu exchanges, adding uncertainty to whether this rare summit can succeed.

An exclusive report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 10th quoted people familiar with the matter and a Chinese official as saying that China is willing to host the three-party talks, but hopes to complete agenda negotiations in advance to ensure that the content and expected results of the talks are arranged. If an agreement cannot be reached in advance, Beijing would rather hold separate bilateral talks instead.

A senior U.S. government official said that Xi Jinping seemed unwilling to engage in direct communication with Trump and Putin without a preset script. People familiar with Beijing's decision-making believe that Xi Jinping hopes to use the tripartite summit to obtain images, statements and publicity effects of the historic meeting, but does not want to take the risk of the on-site dialogue getting out of control.

Trump wants to talk about nuclear weapons, but Beijing doesn’t want to get caught up in an arms race

The report pointed out that Trump has stated that he hopes to discuss nuclear arms control during the talks. He said on the 9th that he expected to discuss many issues, including denuclearization, during his meetings with Xi Jinping and Putin. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has also said that the three-party talks will allow the leaders of the world's three major nuclear powers to directly discuss arms control.

However, China's nuclear weapons are far smaller than those of the United States and Russia, but they have expanded rapidly in recent years. Beijing has long been unwilling to participate in relevant negotiations, and a Chinese official even stated that China will not agree to participate in trilateral nuclear arms control negotiations. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia expired in February this year and has not been replaced by a new agreement. The United States advocates that any subsequent agreement should include China.

Russia's proposal for three-party talks is also seen as hoping to take advantage of Trump's change in attitude towards the Kremlin to promote an end to the Ukrainian war on terms favorable to Russia without involving Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Former US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell believes that this meeting is high-risk and unpredictable for Xi Jinping. He pointed out that Beijing prefers to handle its relations with the United States and Russia separately and strive for their respective interests.

WSJ pointed out that Xi Jinping’s meetings with foreign leaders are usually carefully arranged. With the Chinese Communist Party scheduled to hold its 21st National Congress at the end of 2027, Xi Jinping is facing high-level personnel adjustments, and unpredictable impromptu conversations with Trump and Putin have also increased Beijing's concerns.