The United States’ announcement of deploying a space weapon in Earth’s orbit raised questions about the nature of the weapons already present in space, and the role they could play in the great powers’ efforts to control this field.
Washington revealed little in its announcement. Air Force Secretary Troy Mink said that the weapon “in orbit” was necessary to protect American forces from hostile actions that might be carried out by adversaries, but he did not reveal any details regarding the capabilities of this weapon or the timing of its placement in orbit.
What is the nature of this weapon? What is the broader picture of military developments in space? What other countries might possess similar weapons?
Space has been a military domain since the beginning of the Space Age. In the late 1960s, the Soviet Union deployed weapons in space. The Sputnikov (satellite destroyer) program consisted of satellites designed to launch projectiles that would explode and send fragments into the path of another satellite, usually an American satellite.
Currently, advanced militaries deploy satellites in space for a variety of purposes, including reconnaissance, secure communications, monitoring missile launches, and providing precise location information for targeted strikes.
In light of the increasing technological development in warfare methods, analysts expect the use of military equipment in space to expand.
Bladen Bowen, associate fellow in military science at the Royal United Services Institute and associate professor of astropolitics at Durham University, says he can only speculate about the nature of the weapon that the United States announced its deployment.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I would expect there to be some sort of electronic warfare platform or radio communications jamming platform, perhaps a non-destructive, anti-satellite weapon."
He explained that this type of weapon already exists on Earth, and can disrupt communications via satellites, adding: “If you disrupt wireless communications links, the satellite becomes largely useless.”
Bowen also did not rule out the possibility of a more dangerous and disruptive type of weapon that would cause wreckage and destruction.
“The least likely would be a mobile destructive vehicle of some kind, that is, a vehicle that fires a projectile that can hit a satellite and destroy it,” he said.
He added, "A satellite dedicated to close inspection and catching another satellite would also be another possibility."
Whether rivals such as Russia and China already have similar weapons in orbit is difficult to determine.
“If we look at China and Russia, they have both shown activity,” Juliana Suess, a former researcher at the Royal United Services Institute and a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told the BBC.
She adds: “We have observed, with regard to Russia, for example, some activities that suggest a test of a joint space weapon. We have observed what may indicate that they launched a projectile into orbit as part of a test.”
She says: “There are other weapons in space, but without knowing the details of the American weapon, it is difficult to make comparisons.”
Although a weapon placed in orbit may be unusual, the United States, as well as its competitors Russia and China, have for some time possessed weapons that can be directed and launched into space.
In a later interview with the BBC, Bowen criticized China's reaction to the American announcement, in which it warned of the outbreak of an arms race in space, and described it as "someone blaming others for a defect that he himself is in."
“If you are already an expert, you realize how empty these words are when they come from the Russian and Chinese governments,” he said.
He added: "The United States, Russia and China, as well as India, have developed various types of anti-satellite or anti-space weapons. Russia and China have also placed in space many technologies that have great potential for use as weapons."
It is worth noting that over the past ten years, Russia and China have greatly intensified their maneuvers in space, known as “rendezvous and approach operations” (RPO), which include “flyby” of Western satellites.
Rod Thornton, lecturer in Russian defense and security studies at King's College London, told the BBC: "Theoretically, these rendezvous and approach satellites could be transformed into tracking and destroying satellites, by physically colliding with them or pushing them out of their orbit."
He says this could be a positive development, both as a way to remove space debris and to disable working satellites.
However, some types of space weapons can also generate huge amounts of space debris.
Mark Hilburn, a specialist in space security and weaponry at King's College, says that direct-launched anti-satellite missile tests, such as China's in 2007, leave a lot of debris in orbit for a very long time.
SOSS says the debris from this test is still in orbit and still poses a danger.
“It doesn't have to be a huge piece of metal to cause damage, it could just be a small piece of plastic, given the speed we're talking about in orbit,” she adds.
Nuclear threat
Thornton says that what Russia lacks in weapons and satellites in space, it makes up for with its missile capabilities.
He added: "The Russians have ground-based missiles that can be launched into space to hit (satellites) on the low ground path. They also have anti-satellite missiles that can be launched from the air, and planes can launch them from high altitudes."
“From the Russian perspective, they see NATO as having far more satellites than the Russian military can use,” he says, “so they have invested heavily in anti-satellite weapons with the aim of ‘leveling the battlefield’.”
Thornton added a worrying thought: “The Russians could also launch nuclear weapons into space, and an EMP blast would ‘fry’ any unprotected satellite on a large scale.”
The question is: How likely is a nuclear conflict in space? The answer is that this will only be possible if a similar conflict is taking place on Earth as well.
“What might happen in space is not something that can happen in isolation from events on Earth, really,” Bowen says. “And nothing might happen, or it might happen.”
It seems that this situation has created a striking imbalance.
Thornton says that Russia would be the "big winner" in any space war, given that it has very few satellites, unlike China and the United States.
