
AI-generated summary
FED held the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 and the minutes of this meeting were published. The minutes showed that the policy rate was increased by 25 basis points to the range of 3.75-4%, in line with expectations.
The FED interest rate decision is among the main economic agenda items followed closely by the markets in October. So, when will the FED interest rate decision be announced? What are the expectations for the FED interest rate decision in October 2026?
WHEN WILL THE FED INTEREST RATE DECISION FOR OCTOBER 2026 BE ANNOUNCED?
The FED October meeting will be held on October 27-28. After the meeting, the FED will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, October 28 at 21:00 GMT.
FED INTEREST RATE DECISION EXPECTATION
The Fed published the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held on September 15-16.
The minutes of the last meeting, where the policy rate was increased by 25 basis points to the range of 3.75-4 percent in line with expectations, showed that another interest rate increase could be made this year. While Fed officials generally stated that inflation risks are upward, some officials noted that these risks have increased in recent months. On the other hand, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Board Member Christopher Waller signaled new interest rate increases at the Istanbul Economic Forum organized by the CBRT.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The FED may increase the interest rate at its October 2026 meeting.
Possible · Within days
According to the data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, there was a surplus of 4 billion 53 million dollars in the current account in August. The annualized current account deficit was approximately 42.1 billion dollars.

CBRT announced the balance of payments data for August 2026. Accordingly, while the current account account gave a surplus of 4 billion 53 million dollars in August, the annualized current account deficit was 42.1 billion dollars.

TURKSTAT announced the foreign trade indices for August 2026. According to the data, while the export unit value index increased by 8.5 percent, the import unit value index increased by 13.7 percent; The terms of foreign trade decreased to 90 levels.

In Türkiye, the import quantity index decreased by 2.8% on an annual basis in August. The export quantity index, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, increased by 1.0% in August 2026.

In the October issue of the World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF predicted that the global economy would grow 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. While Türkiye's 2026 growth forecast was reduced from 2.9% to 2.7%, the 2027 forecast was maintained at 3.6%. Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026.

Gold prices fell ahead of US inflation data, falling to $4,164.45 per ounce. The strengthening of the dollar has put pressure on gold, and the markets are waiting for the CPI data to be announced on Wednesday and PPI data to be published on Thursday. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of an interest rate increase in October is priced at 21% and in December it is priced at 88%. Saudi Arabia's announcement that it was facing a new wave of missile attacks increased geopolitical tension. Silver, platinum and palladium also lost value.