Fenabrave predicts a 12.8% increase in new vehicle sales in 2026

The National Federation of Motor Vehicle Distribution (Fenabrave) increased the growth projection for new vehicle sales in 2026 from 8.6% to 12.8%. The expectation was released this Wednesday (4), with data on new vehicle registrations in the country in October.

The forecast is that the sector, as a whole, should sell almost 5.6 million units during the year. Between January and October, 4,722,650 units were registered, which already represents a growth of 12.62% over the same period in 2025.

According to Fenabrave, this was the second highest accumulated result in the historical series, behind only that recorded in 2011.

"The accumulated results allow a more favorable assessment for the end of the year, mainly among cars and light commercial vehicles. At the same time, we continue to project a decline for trucks and buses, although smaller than those estimated in July, but below what we predicted in January", said Arcelio Junior, president of Fenabrave.

For the federation, the result shows that the Brazilian market maintains a consistent growth rate, albeit with occasional adjustments.

“We observed a gradual recovery in segments such as trucks, buses and road equipment, whose sharp decline has been receding over the months, notably after the implementation of the Move Brasil Program”, added Arcelio Junior.

Fall in October

Sales of these vehicles fell 4.06% in October, compared to September, according to the balance sheet. In relation to October 2025, there was also a decrease of 0.85%.

Fenabrave estimates that October's decline was influenced by the calendar, as October last year had 23 working days, while this year there were 21.

The total of 489,119 registrations last month includes cars, light commercial vehicles (pickups and vans), buses, trucks, motorcycles and road implements, such as trailers and bodies.

Electric vehicles

One factor that has contributed to the good performance in the year is the sale of electrified vehicles, which showed growth of more than 130% year-to-date, with 524,766 units registered. This considers both hybrid and fully electric models.

Considering only cars and light commercial vehicles, the share of electrified vehicles has practically doubled in the country: currently, they already represent 20.54% of registrations in Brazil, says Fenabrave. Last year, this corresponded to 10.67%.

Performance by segments

The automobile and light commercial segment continues to see good growth this year, Fenabrave reported. Year-to-date, growth was 17.29%, with 2,410,505 units registered.

Considering only the month of October, there was a drop of 5.48% compared to September and growth of 2.5% compared to October last year.

As for the truck and bus segments, the decline persists, despite some recovery in the year. Year-to-date, the decline was 4.18%, while in September, the drop was 8.36%. Compared to October 2025, sales fell 10.26%.

Motorcycles grew 8.90% in the year, with 1,985,816 units registered, the highest accumulated volume in its historical series.

"Motorcycles meet both individual mobility needs and professional activities, especially in cities. This diversity of use contributes to maintaining high demand, even with small occasional adjustments from one month to the next, such as those that occurred in October, due to the smaller number of working days compared to October last year", says Arcelio Junior.