In 2016, the Rams were 4-5 when they benched Case Keenum and handed the offense to No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff. He lost all seven of his starts, threw five touchdowns and seven interceptions, and LA finished 4-12. Jeff Fisher was fired with three games remaining, the Rams hired Sean McVay that offseason, and the rest is history.
Two years later, the Ravens were also 4-5 when Lamar Jackson, the final pick of the first round in 2018, replaced an injured Joe Flacco. He won six of his first seven starts, and Baltimore won the AFC North before losing to the Chargers in the wild-card round. Jackson threw just five touchdowns, but his ability to run transformed everything about the offense.
Same record. Same point in the season. Two completely different outcomes.
And now comes Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 pick in April's draft, who inherits a 4-5 Raiders team after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday for a third-round pick. Mendoza will make his first start Sunday against the Seahawks, and while it's tempting to think nine weeks on the bench may have helped prepare him for what's next, history suggests it could be a little more complicated than that.
What happens when rookie QBs don't start until midseason?
Since 2000, 148 quarterbacks have started at least one game as NFL rookies. Just 22 made their first start between Weeks 10 and 13, and their collective debuts were not pretty.
They completed just 53.8% of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and threw interceptions on 5.3% of their dropbacks – the worst marks of any group. Only five of those 22 won their debuts, and their interception rate was more than 1.6 times that of rookies who started in Week 1.
Of course, circumstances matter. Some quarterbacks sat because they weren't ready. Others played because the starter got hurt or was ineffective. But the takeaway remains: Sitting for half a season doesn't guarantee a smoother transition to the top of the depth chart.
What happened to the teams that turned to rookies?
Five teams had winning records when they turned to a rookie in Weeks 10-13. They were a combined 30-19 before the change and went 10-20 afterward. The 17 teams with losing records fared slightly better when they installed a rookie under center, improving their winning percentage from 28.9% to 33.7% – though they still lost twice as often as they won.
Only three of those 22 teams made the playoffs. The 2011 Texans turned to T.J. Yates after injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. The 2017 Bills benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman despite sitting at 5-4. Peterman threw five interceptions in the first half of his debut, Taylor reclaimed the job at halftime, and Buffalo eventually made the playoffs with Taylor back under center.
Jackson was different. Baltimore initially needed him because Flacco was injured, but he played so well that they stuck with him even after Flacco was healthy. Obviously, that's a blueprint the Raiders would love to follow, but it's fair to say the organizational infrastructure isn't quite there yet.
And then there are the more immediate concerns for the Raiders rookie…
The schedule isn't doing Mendoza any favors
Mendoza's first three starts come against Seattle, Denver and Cleveland, which also happen to be three of the league's best defenses. The schedule gets less daunting after a Week 13 bye, though matchups against the Broncos and Chiefs make up two of the Raiders' final four games. So yeah.
There is a bigger issue: Mendoza could play well and still lose a bunch of games, and Vegas' first nine weeks help explain why.
The Raiders' biggest problem isn't their rookie QB
Kirk Cousins wasn't the reason for all the losing when Vegas traded him. He had thrown 20 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, and the team was averaging 25.4 points per game. Their passing offense ranks fifth in yards per game and ninth in EPA per play, so Mendoza isn't walking into a no-win situation.
The problems lie everywhere else. Las Vegas ranks dead last in yards per carry (2.9), 31st in rushing yards per game (71.3) and 30th in rushing success rate. The defense hasn't been much better, allowing 35.7 points per game over the last six weeks, five of them losses.
That's a tough combination for any quarterback, future Hall of Famer or fresh face of the franchise. Kubiak's system can help, but even the best-designed offense needs a run game that provides some balance.
Back in June, I wrote that Mendoza might be the most NFL-ready quarterback in the class but had landed in the least quarterback-friendly situation. My rookie QB model had him completing 61.4% of his passes, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt with an 82.1 passer rating.
Which brings us back to Goff and Jackson.
They started their careers headed in opposite directions, yet both eventually became two of the NFL's best quarterbacks. Goff didn't reach his current level until Detroit surrounded him with a strong offensive line, dependable running game and playmakers (and early on, Ben Johnson). Baltimore built its offense around Jackson's unique abilities rather than asking him to become something he wasn't.
The Raiders already have their quarterback of the future. Mendoza has eight games to show what he can do, but whether he goes 0-8, 6-2 or somewhere in between won't tell us much about the quarterback he could become. His job is to prove he belongs. The organization's job is to make sure he has a chance to succeed.
