The United States midterm elections, this Tuesday (3), are expected to be the most expensive in history, according to the American press. Political parties invested heavily to try to balance forces and elect as many deputies and senators as possible.
Unlike Brazil, the United States Congress is partially renewed every two years. When they occur in the middle of the presidential term, these elections are called midterms, or mid-term elections.
US deputies serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms.
As a result, every two years, the country renews the entire Chamber of Representatives and around a third of the Senate.
Therefore, this time, all 435 seats in the Chamber and 35 of the 100 in the Senate will be up for grabs.
According to data from the Federal Election Commission, compiled by broadcaster NPR, the campaigns raised more than US$15 billion (R$75 billion). Half of this amount had already been spent by the first half of October.
Although Democratic candidates have raised more money in several races, Republicans rely on political groups that have large reserves to finance campaigns and election ads.
Between July and September, Democratic or independent candidates raised more than their Republican opponents in 27 of 35 Senate races, according to NPR.
In the 13 races considered most competitive, Democrats raised almost five times more than Republicans.
When considering the money available to external organizations that support the parties, Republicans have an advantage.
According to the Associated Press, groups linked to Trump had around US$1 billion (R$5 billion) available to invest in the elections, compared to approximately US$579 million (R$2.9 billion) from similar Democratic organizations.
Part of these resources comes from large donors.
Businessman Elon Musk, for example, transferred US$158 million (R$793 million) to the Senate Leadership Fund, a group aligned with Republicans in the Senate.
He also made other donations to organizations that support party candidates.
Some of the money was used in the Senate race in Texas, where Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico.
At the end of October, Trump announced that he would invest more than US$400 million (R$2 billion) to help Republican candidates. On the Democratic side, businessman Michael Bloomberg promised to invest US$80 million (R$400 million) in support of party candidates, according to Reuters.
It is worth remembering that, unlike Brazil, the United States does not have free election hours.
Furthermore, although there is the option of public financing of campaigns, this modality imposes a series of restrictions. For this reason, candidates tend to choose to raise funds from private donors.
See below a guide to questions and answers about the 2026 elections:
1. What are midterms and why do they have that name?
The midterms are the midterm elections in the United States. They get their name because they happen in the middle of the presidential term.
The last elections took place in 2024. Trump took office in January 2025, as did the deputies and senators elected that year.
In November 2026, Trump will be halfway through his presidential term, while the representatives elected in 2024 and the senators elected in 2020 will be near the end of their terms.
Parliamentarians elected in the midterms will take office in January 2027.
Trump is not contesting the election, and his presidential term ends in January 2029.
The next presidential election will be in 2028. On the same date, there will be elections to renew all seats in the House of Representatives and around a third of the seats in the Senate.
2. When will the election take place and when will the results be released?
The election is scheduled for Tuesday (3). However, early voting has already started in some states, and some voters have already voted by mail.
Each state is responsible for counting its own votes. Unlike Brazil, the United States does not have a national body like the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), responsible for coordinating elections across the country.
In general, counting begins as soon as polling places close. The hours vary from state to state. In Florida, for example, voting ends at 7pm. In New York, voters have until 9 p.m. In Tennessee, hours vary by county.
The first results should be released on the evening of the 3rd. However, it could take days before it is possible to know which party will have control of the Chamber and the Senate.
In 2022, for example, the dispute for control of the Chamber was only defined more than a week after the election. The delay occurred, among other factors, because some states take longer to count votes sent by mail.
3. What positions are up for grabs?
The United States electoral system has important differences in relation to the Brazilian one. In Congress, for example, the Senate and the House of Representatives follow different rules.
In the Senate, each of the 50 states is entitled to two seats, regardless of population size. Therefore, the House has 100 senators in total.
In the Chamber of Representatives, the 435 seats are distributed among the states according to population. Each deputy represents a region, called an electoral district.
In these elections, the following are up for grabs:
All 435 seats in the Chamber of Representatives, equivalent to the Chamber of Deputies in Brazil.
Americans will also elect 35 senators. In total, the Senate has 100 seats.
There will also be elections for governor in 36 American states.
4. Trump is not on the ballot, but why is this election crucial for him?
In the 2024 elections, the Republican Party, the same as Trump, won the majority of seats in the House and Senate. With this, the party began to control the agenda and votes in both Houses.
This allowed Trump to approve important agendas for his government. Still, he faced difficulties, as the Republican majority is small and some party parliamentarians contradicted the president in votes.
Now, Trump wants to maintain the majority to continue having support in Congress. A defeat in the Chamber, the Senate or both Houses could make it difficult to approve the president's projects and open space for parliamentarians to block government actions and open investigations.
To avoid the Democratic advance, Trump has traveled the country almost daily to participate in election rallies. More recently, he promised to pay a bonus of up to $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans win the election.
In previous months, the president also encouraged and supported changes in electoral maps to favor his own party in some states and guarantee seats in the Chamber.
Trump also took measures to try to restrict voting by mail, claiming that there is fraud in this model. Data shows that Democratic voters are more likely to vote by mail than Republicans.
Still, there is a warning in the White House. A few days before the elections, surveys indicate that the president's disapproval is around 60%.
5. How is the race for the Senate going?
Recent polls and projections indicate that Democrats could win the Senate majority in the November elections.
Currently, Republicans have 53 seats in the House, while Democrats have 47 senators, including two independents who usually vote with the party. Projections indicate that this scenario could change from 2027 onwards.
The academic center follows elections in the US and gathers projections on the disputes. In the last update, on October 29th, the scenario was as follows:
Democrats: 49 seats
Republicans: 46 seats
Undefined disputes: 5 seats
Political journalist Logan Phillips' platform projects election results based on polls. On October 30, the forecast was as follows:
Democrats: 53 seats
Republicans: 47 seats
Chance of victory for Democrats: 78.4%
The website brings together projections from different sources and presents scenarios for the composition of the Senate after the elections.
6. How is the race for the Chamber going?
According to polls, the Democratic Party is the favorite to win control of the Chamber.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on October 19 found that 47% of voters said they intended to vote for a Democratic candidate, while 35% said they intended to choose a Republican.
Currently, Republicans have 218 seats in the House, while Democrats have 214 deputies. There is still an independent deputy and two open vacancies.
Just like in the Senate, projections indicate that this scenario could change starting next year.
