Flávio Bolsonaro is slightly favored in the runoff against Lula

The right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro is slightly favored in the runoff election for the Brazilian presidency on October 25th against the left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In Sunday's election, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro received around 47 percent after preliminary counting of almost all votes by the electoral authority, while Lula received around 45 percent - and thus more than two million votes fewer. This means that neither of the two achieved an absolute majority; a runoff vote must decide. Around 159 million Brazilians were called to vote for a total of twelve candidates.

“Brazil wants change,” said Bolsonaro after the election. He viewed the performance as a vote of confidence in political change and declared the end of the era of Lula's PT workers' party to be sealed. Lula admitted that he was convinced that he would win the election in the first round. Now a new campaign is beginning, said the 80-year-old. «The game begins. We’re in overtime.”

Historical record speaks for Bolsonaro

Political scientist Oliver Stuenkel sees Bolsonaro as the clear favorite. The other candidates were basically conservative, he said. Lula therefore has to win over a large part of her voters. Given the political orientation of the eliminated candidates and their supporters, he considers this unlikely.

The historical record also speaks in favor of Bolsonaro: since the return to direct presidential elections in 1989 after the military dictatorship, the candidate who was ahead in the first round won in all seven run-off elections. The last time this happened was Lula in 2022, who overtook Jair Bolsonaro and ultimately narrowly won the runoff election.

Two political camps - electoral successes for the Bolsonaro family

Lula stands for the continuation of the policy he has pursued since 2023 with social programs, public investments and a stronger role for the state. The former union leader ruled Brazil from 2003 to 2010. During his third term, unemployment and deforestation in the Amazon region fell. At the same time, rising living costs, high government spending and debt are putting pressure on the government.

Flávio Bolsonaro from the Liberal Party PL, on the other hand, promises a leaner state, spending cuts and a tougher line against crime. He builds on the political legacy of his father Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for his role in an attempted coup. One of his central campaign promises is an amnesty for his father.

In addition to the president, representatives, senators and governors, among others, were elected on Sunday. Other members of the Bolsonaro family have already achieved electoral success: Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro was elected to the Senate in the federal district of Brasília. Carlos Bolsonaro, another son of the former president, also won a Senate seat - in the southern state of Santa Catarina.

Overall, the right-wing camp around Bolsonaro won by far the most seats in the Senate and will be the largest faction there in the future. “If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, he will have an excellent starting position,” said Stuenkel.

Security as a central election campaign issue

Public safety was one of the most important issues of the election campaign. Drug gangs such as the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho (CV) control areas in parts of the country and are involved in drug trafficking and other illegal businesses. Violence against women also remains a major problem.

Flávio Bolsonaro is taking a particularly tough course. During the election campaign, he announced around half a million additional detention places and high-security prisons based on the model in El Salvador. He also wants to fight criminal organizations more strongly. Lula is placing greater emphasis on combating the financial structures of organized crime.

Trump and sovereignty

Foreign policy was also part of the election campaign. US President Donald Trump had politically supported Jair Bolsonaro and criticized the criminal prosecution of the former head of state. Flávio Bolsonaro became closer to Trump's political camp during the election campaign and met him at the White House in Washington. Lula, on the other hand, is placing greater emphasis on defending Brazilian sovereignty and trying to stabilize relations with the USA despite conflicts with Washington.

Since Trump's return to the White House, Latin America's political landscape has changed. Right-wing candidates have recently won presidential elections in countries such as Bolivia, Chile and Colombia. At the same time, after the arrest of Venezuelan head of state Nicolás Maduro, the US government is working more closely with Venezuela's incumbent President Delcy Rodríguez, including in the oil sector.

As the largest economy and most populous country in Latin America, Brazil is an important political player in the region - a victory for Lula would keep the country as a political counterpoint to the regional shift to the right. Under Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazil would orient itself more towards Washington and conservative governments in the region, which would also significantly expand Trump's influence in Latin America.

Dispute over justice and corruption

The election campaign was also marked by the dispute over the Supreme Court (STF). The focus was on the case surrounding Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of the Banco Master bank, who is being investigated by the federal police for financial crimes worth billions and allegations of corruption. News from Vorcaro to STF judge Alexandre de Moraes as well as a contract for around 131 million reals between the bank and the law firm of Moraes' wife became known. Moraes, who played a central role in the trial against Jair Bolsonaro, denies allegations of wrongdoing. The case led to arguments among several STF judges.

Flávio Bolsonaro repeatedly criticized Moraes and the court harshly, but also came into the focus of investigators himself: the financing of the film “Dark Horse” about his father involves, among other things, payments from Vorcaro. Flávio Bolsonaro denies irregularities.