Donald Trump and Javier Milei celebrate. And not only them: Brazil has surrendered this Sunday to the hard-right wave sweeping through Latin America, with a great result for Flávio Bolsonaro, one step away from becoming the new president thanks to a resounding victory over the current head of state, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, 45 years old and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, obtained 49.58% of the votes with 65% counted. Lula, who is seeking to be elected president for the fourth time to govern from the ages of 81 to 85, was well below his expectations, with 42.25%.
With these results, Bolsonaro and Lula will have to face each other in a second round on October 25 to define who will be installed as of January 5 in the Planalto Palace. The difference in favor of Bolsonaro is, however, considerable, and the winner of the first round also has the window that the majority of the votes that went to other candidates, more than 8%, are mostly right-wing.
If Bolsonaro is confirmed in three weeks as the new president, Brazil, the largest piece, will have fallen: the country-continent, the last relevant one that resisted in South America, will join Milei's Argentina, Abelardo De la Espriella's Colombia, Keiko Fujimori's Peru, José Antonio Kast's Chile and other countries in the hands of the hard right. Only small Uruguay, with Yamandú Orsi, is governed by the left. Venezuela, controlled by the United States, falls into other types of political categories.
Trump, with whom Lula had a bad relationship, rubs his hands: Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, ninth largest GDP in the world, second largest reserve of rare earths in the world, and a major producer of energy and food. Brazil's alliance in the BRICS with other powers such as China, Russia, India or Iran should not have much life left. And the fight with Argentina, with Bolsonaro president, will be a memory of the past.
Is the victory written for Jair Bolsonaro's son, sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for leading a failed coup d'état?
It is written and the only thing missing is the signature, because the situation on the left is dramatic. It might not even work for Lula in three weeks if the fear of the return of the Bolsonaro right mobilizes all those who sympathize with the left, but this Sunday they did not go to vote. The problem? That those potential votes are very few: four years ago 79% voted in both the first and second rounds. And this time, exactly that same number.
"The map of Brazil shows a very strong right-wing wave," analyst Andrea Sadi certified on Globo News, on a night that was a true nightmare for the Workers' Party (PT), devastated in a good part of the country. Bolsonaro took advantage over Lula from the first count, with about eight points. But it was only 1.2% of the votes cast, the experts stressed: since the votes from the south, a region with a strong Bolsonaro presence, are counted more quickly, we must wait for those from the Northeast, which is more Lulista, to enter, they added.
Vain illusion of the left. The scrutiny progressed and the difference in favor of Bolsonaro not only did not reduce, but grew until it was close to 11 points. With 25% of the votes counted, Lula began to recover differences, although Bolsonaro was still above the 50% that guarantees him victory in the first round.
We had to wait until 64.81% were counted for the definition to return to a second round, which is what was predicted in the previous round, although Bolsonaro said in the final stretch of the campaign that he would win in the first round.
The second round on October 25 is for many of its followers just a detail, because they already consider themselves winners. Two hours after the polling stations closed, celebrations were already beginning to be heard in the noble neighborhoods of Sao Paulo, even with fireworks.
While Brazil was waiting for the definition, there were already three successful Bolsonaros. Michelle, the wife of the former president, won the race for federal senator for Brasilia. Carlos Bolsonaro, another of the former president's sons, also became a federal senator for the state of Santa Catarina. Jair Renan, another of the brothers, was elected national deputy.
If Bolsonaro governs Brazil starting in January, his first measure is foreseeable: amnesty his father, who chose him as a candidate, and those convicted of the coup plot at the end of 2022 and the assault on the Plaza de los Tres Poderes on January 8, 2023.
On a day in which 27 governors, two-thirds of the Senate and the entire Chamber of Deputies were also elected, the right-wing candidates swept. Tarcisio de Freitas, the governor of Sao Paulo, a state with a GDP greater than that of all of Argentina, crushed Fernando Haddad, the former minister promoted by Lula. Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais will also be governed by the right.
