Flávio Bolsonaro has 52.7% of valid votes in the 2nd round, against 47.3% for Lula, says Ipespe

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 52.7% of valid voting intentions in the second round of the presidential election, compared to 47.3% for President Lula (PT), according to an Ipespe/Abrapel survey released this Saturday (10). Valid votes exclude blank, null and undecided votes.

In total votes from the stimulated survey, in which the names of the candidates are presented to the interviewees, Flávio scores 49% and Lula, 44%. Another 5% say they will vote blank or null, and 3% don't know or didn't answer.

The survey interviewed 1,500 voters aged 16 and over by telephone, from October 6th to 8th. The maximum margin of error for the entire sample is 2.6 percentage points, plus or minus. The research is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-00933/2026.

In the first round, held on Sunday (4), Flávio received 47.03% of the valid votes, compared to 45.16% for Lula. A Datafolha survey released on Thursday (8) also showed the senator ahead in the second round, with 52% of valid votes, against 48% for the president.

Flávio appears numerically ahead among men, evangelicals and voters with a family income of two to five minimum wages. Lula has an advantage among women and people with incomes of up to two minimum wages.

By region, the president leads in the Northeast, while the senator is ahead in the South and Southeast. The survey presents the North and Central-West in a single group, in which Flávio also appears at the forefront.

Among those interviewed who claim to have voted for Augusto Cury in the first round, 50% declare their intention to vote for Flávio and 29% for Lula. Among those who say they voted for Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the percentages are 56% and 15%, respectively. In the group that declared their previous vote for Renan Santos (Missão), 36% chose Flávio and 20%, Lula.

Regarding rejection, 49% of those interviewed say they would not vote for Lula under any circumstances, while 46% say the same about Flávio Bolsonaro. Another 5% say they could vote for the PT member, and the same percentage declares this possibility in relation to the senator.

The survey also asked voters how they identify politically. Independents account for 37%. Another 33% declare themselves to be right-wing (23% non-Bolsonarists and 10% Bolsonarists), while 25% identify with the left (13% non-Lulistas and 12% Lulistas).