The process, which started with the liquidation of 131 investment funds in Turkey, affected hundreds of thousands of investors and also escalated the debate on trust in financial markets. International credit rating agencies and investment banks focused on the possible effects of the crisis on credit scores, financial stability and economic growth in their evaluations published since the end of September.
Current evaluations indicate that the crisis has not yet turned into a systemic disruption that spreads throughout the financial system. On the other hand, possible effects on control mechanisms, investor confidence and economic activity are among the warnings of international organizations.
FITCH: NO DIRECT IMPACT ON CREDIT RATING IS EXPECTED
One of the first evaluations after the crisis came from Fitch Ratings on September 29.
Fitch Ratings Senior Director Douglas Winslow evaluated the fund investigation as a "negative development" but stated that they do not expect a direct impact on Turkey's credit rating at the current stage.
Winslow stated that due to the process, there was no systemic risk or dollarization pressure throughout the financial system. It was stated that the improvement in reserves also increased the resilience of the Turkish economy against external shocks.
CRITICAL CONDITION FROM S&P: IT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
In its assessment on October 2, S&P Global Ratings focused on whether the crisis would spread throughout the financial system.
S&P Global Ratings Türkiye Lead Analyst Karen Vartapetov announced that they do not expect downward pressure on Turkey's credit rating if the developments remain isolated.
Vartapetov stated that there has been no significant deterioration in the exchange rate, dollarization and liquidity of the banking sector so far. He described the authorities' intervention towards the funds as "quick and convincing".
S&P is expected to publish its next credit rating assessment for Turkey on October 16.
MOODY'S DRAW ATTENTION TO AUDIT DEFICIENCIES
In its assessment published on October 2, Moody's Ratings reported that the credit risk arising from the "fund flight" crisis in Turkey is limited at the current stage.
However, the institution pointed out that, unlike other evaluations, the process revealed some deficiencies in terms of market surveillance and control.
In Moody's report, it was emphasized that although the direct impact of the crisis on the credit profile was limited, supervisory mechanisms should be strengthened.
FTSE RUSSELL MAINTAINED Türkiye'S STATUS
After the credit rating agencies, all eyes turned to the country classification assessment of the international index provider FTSE Russell.
FTSE Russell did not include Turkey on the watch list for any possible status change in the annual country classification results announced on October 6.
Thus, Türkiye retained its "Advanced Emerging Market" status in the FTSE Russell classification.
Fiona Bassett, CEO of FTSE Russell, stated that the basis of the country classification system is global investors' access to markets. While changes regarding Egypt and Oman were reflected in the monitoring list in the 2026 evaluation, no new status change was brought to the agenda for Türkiye.
JPMORGAN: DOWNWARD RISK IN GROWTH FORECAST
While credit rating agencies focused mainly on financial stability and credit rating, JPMorgan drew attention to the impact of the crisis on the real economy.
The bank reported that turmoil in the fund sector could put pressure on economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2026.
JPMorgan stated that the developments pose a "serious downside risk" to the 3 percent growth forecast for the Turkish economy in 2026.
NO SYSTEMIC CRISIS, TRUST RISK ON THE TABLE
Evaluations of international organizations agree that the liquidation of 131 funds does not cause a direct blow to the banking system or credit rating at the current stage.
On the other hand, Moody's emphasis on audit gaps and JPMorgan's warning regarding the growth forecast raise the question of whether the effects of the fund crisis will be limited to liquidated funds.
The fact that the liquidation process involves hundreds of thousands of investors and approximately 20 billion dollars of assets makes the course of investor confidence and at what values the liquidated assets will be converted into cash the critical topics of the coming period.
