Why is saying goodbye to fossil fuels being delayed?

Helsinki, the capital of Finland, is preparing to remove fossil fuel advertisements from public spaces. The initiative, which was discussed in the city council on October 7, envisages limiting the promotion of coal, oil and natural gas. There is no ban that has come into force yet. Existing outdoor advertising contracts run until 2035. However, the initiative shows that the climate fight is not limited to energy production. How fossil fuels are marketed in daily life is now also part of the discussion.

Helsinki's move comes at a time when calls to exit fossil fuels are intensifying. While the world increases renewable energy investments, it also continues to produce coal, oil and natural gas. Scientists remind that emissions must be reduced rapidly in order to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called on countries to prepare clear timetables for transitioning out of fossil fuels at the climate summit held in New York in September. He emphasized that national climate plans should be compatible with the 1.5 degree target. He also called for the energy transition to be carried out in a way that protects workers and vulnerable communities.

UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed also visited the Pacific island countries Fiji and Tuvalu, which are severely experiencing the effects of the climate crisis, before COP31. “We must take urgent measures to ensure that every child born today in the Pacific Islands can grow, develop and live on the islands they call home,” he said at the COP31 preliminary meeting held in Fiji. Mohammed emphasized that the global temperature increase temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degree limit cannot be a reason to give up the climate fight. He called for rapid reductions in emissions and implementation of commitments to move away from fossil fuels made at COP28.

The basis of these calls is the compromise reached at COP28 in Dubai. Countries agreed to move away from fossil fuels in their energy systems in a fair, orderly and equitable manner. It also called for tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030. These decisions, which were an important threshold for climate negotiations, did not include a binding global fossil fuel exit schedule.

This is where the main problem today comes to an end. While countries accept the necessity of energy transformation, disagreements continue on how quickly fossil fuel production and consumption will be reduced. New coal, oil and natural gas investments conflict with long-term climate goals.

COP31, which will be held in Antalya between 9-20 November, will be at the center of these discussions. Electrification, renewable energy and climate finance come to the fore at the summit, which will be held under the chairmanship of Türkiye and the negotiation chairmanship of Australia. The “35 by 35” initiative announced by the COP31 Presidency aims to increase the share of electricity in global final energy consumption to 35 percent by 2035.

According to the analysis published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in September, this share, which is approximately 23 percent today, can reach 33 percent economically in 2035 with current technologies. Electric transportation and the transformation of energy use in industry and buildings play a decisive role in this increase. However, electrification alone does not mean an exit from fossil fuels. Increasing electricity demand needs to be met with renewable resources instead of coal and natural gas.

In September, 92 international non-governmental organizations and networks, in a joint open letter sent to the COP31 Presidency, called for the electrification target to be addressed together with the transition from fossil fuels and a fair energy transition. The organizations emphasized that the energy transition targets adopted at COP28 should be evaluated not only by the increase in renewable energy capacity but also by the real reduction in fossil fuel use.

The debate that started from the billboards of Helsinki extends to the negotiation table in Antalya. While one city considers limiting the introduction of fossil fuels, countries around the world are looking for ways to reduce dependence on these resources. However, the gap between the speed of the climate crisis and the speed of political decisions has not been closed.

At the COP31 Dialogues meeting of the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC), it was emphasized that Türkiye should turn its climate commitments into concrete steps. IPC Climate Change Studies Coordinator Ümit Şahin stated that the electrification target will only be credible if it is supported by renewable energy and policies to move away from fossil fuels. He pointed out that Türkiye should create a concrete target and timetable for a gradual exit from coal.

IPC Researcher Onur Akgül emphasized that the 35 percent electrification target on a global scale by 2035 should be considered together with the target of exiting fossil fuels and renewable energy policies. He drew attention to the contradiction between Türkiye's renewable energy targets and the National Contribution Declaration, which envisages an increase in emissions until 2038.