Burned streets in France. Italy in boiling. Germany in high concern. Open electoral valve in Spain. It is clear that the political evolution of Spanish society today is strongly linked to international events. Spain will vote after Brazil, Israel and the United States. Spain will go to the polls with strong social tension in neighboring countries whose economic growth is barely a few tenths. Does GDP growth no longer matter? Call Emmanuel Macron and tell him that France will close the year with 2.5% growth. Let's see what he answers.
The French student protest spreads to other sectors of society, and the fury of the yellow vests reappears. Again, the price of fuel as a trigger. Strong riots in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Lille, Reims, the Limoges mayor's office devoured by flames... Hundreds of prisoners. Explosion of anger when there are six months left until presidential elections that are possibly decisive for the future of the European Union. Tension in the streets and also in the financial markets since French public debt has reached 120% of GDP, almost twenty-one points more than in Spain.
Social tension in Italy. The city of Milan is a pilot that always warns. All the creaks of Italian society begin in Milan. Yesterday the Duomo square became a battleground between very young protesters and police. Shouts against war and the rising cost of life, songs of the Italian anthem and slogans against Salvini and Meloni. Incidents in Turin, Bologna and Florence. The Italian Government is very concerned about the rising cost of energy in a country that remains highly dependent on gas, with a share of renewable electricity clearly below that of Spain.
The increase in the price of bollette, electricity and gas bills, can change the moods of Italy from one month to the next. Very attentive to the political evolution of Spain, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had in mind the possibility of taking the country to the polls in February or March 2027 and to do so she accelerated a change in the electoral law that may be favorable to her. (Five different electoral laws in thirty years, crazy). Those were the plans, but the rise of inflation in winter may complicate things. Milan's pilot light has been turned on. And the CGIL, the country's main union, has just called a general strike for November 20.
The situation in France is objectively serious, and Germany's airbags are no longer what they were ten years ago. While the United States, Russia and China play chess with the war in Ukraine, while Israel prepares to vote, as we approach the crucial midterm elections in the United States (November 3), a wave of social protest is sweeping Europe. And at that moment, Spain opens the electoral valves.
When he saw the camp in Puerta del Sol, when he read the inflation data for September, Pedro Sánchez thought about calling. Junts helped him, without knowing it. Almost all the polls placed him well below the right and all of Madrid DF took it for granted that he would finish his term after the bad experience in Ceuta. Once again, Sánchez has surprised with an apparently reckless move. While the streets are burning in France, Spain opens the electoral spigot.
Sol's camp is still there, autonomous, outside the control of the conventional parties of the left, including Podemos, which is seeking radicalism again after its noisy break with the Frente Amplio. For many young people from Sol, those are stories from another generation. The unions Comisiones Obreras and UGT maintain the call for a general strike for November 11, with the purpose of connecting the wage demand with the housing shortage. The call bears the seal of CC.OO., an organization that in its beginnings, in the sixties, defined itself as a “sociopolitical movement.” People from the leading group of Commissions have had an active role in the conversations to facilitate a unitary candidacy of the left for the Senate, an initiative that will surely be answered by some type of tactical agreement between PP and Vox. Vox could not appear in some provinces so as not to divide the right-wing vote. On 29-N, the fight between blocks will be made explicit on the salmon-colored ballots.
The image of the day yesterday in France were the barricades in Paris, the Limoges town hall on fire. In Spain, the passionate kiss of Pedro Sánchez to his wife, Begoña Gómez, at the presentation of his candidacy. The PSOE goes with everything. The surveys? The surveys will be mobile like a feather in the wind in the coming weeks because we are facing a political and social situation with new textures. When France combusts, its radiation usually spreads throughout Europe. This week, various demonstrations in Tirana, the capital of Albania, have devastated several State offices, including the headquarters of the Supreme Court. Social outbreaks are not usually gentle in the small and unique Balkan country of high mountains.
Prices of basic products rise. Fuels go up. Rents go up. Young people do not see light in the immediate future, and employees of different levels and categories fear the effects of artificial intelligence on their work.
Frightened by the growing fragility of their industrial base, Germany and France have just agreed that cars with combustion engines can be sold beyond 2035. This pact will be accompanied by measures to try to stop China's strong entry into the European electric car market. From 2028, vehicles that receive public aid must be assembled in Europe, with 70% of the components manufactured in the EU.
Both in the streets and in the factories, in government speeches and in youth protests, we are witnessing a brutal landing on the material base of society. At Sol's camp they do not talk about the philosophy of life as in 2011. The slogans are now very specific. Harsh language of the new youth left. Harsh language of the new youth right. Housing, rents, pensions, strengthening public services or dismantling public services. Strong taxation or low taxation and let everyone wake up.
Turn towards the material. Feminism is still very much alive, but there is less talk about feminism. The left also talks less about feminism. The green agenda is taking a backseat. These days we don't even talk about the most voted list, a topic that a while ago was very pleasant for the PP.
Spain will go to vote while the time accelerates.
