Is the world heading towards three wars unknowingly? FT warns: Trump’s attitude may lead to Xi Jinping’s misjudgment

The U.S. Navy's Burke-class missile destroyer "USS Barry" sailed through the Taiwan Strait on September 17, 2021. The credibility of the United States' security commitment to Taiwan is an issue that Gideon Rachman, chief diplomatic commentator of the Financial Times, focuses on when analyzing the risks of expanding global conflicts. (Picture taken from U.S. Navy)

Regional conflicts around the world have occurred one after another, and the risk of World War III has once again attracted attention. Gideon Rachman, chief diplomatic commentator of the British Financial Times (FT), wrote an article on the 17th to explore whether the situation may gradually spiral out of control amid a series of miscalculations as great power competition intensifies and the United States’ security commitments to its allies and Taiwan become uncertain.

Lachman titled the article "Are we sleepwalking into World War III?" and used "sleepwalking" as a metaphor for the international situation that may gradually move towards a larger-scale conflict without all parties fully aware of the risks. He analyzed that world wars usually involve direct battles between major powers, and the wars span multiple continents. Although these two thresholds have not yet been crossed, regional conflicts may still expand due to unexpected increases.

According to statistics from the International Crisis Group, there are currently 65 ongoing conflicts around the world, a record high since the end of World War II. Lachman believes that the decline in the relative power of the West also gives countries that challenge the existing international order more room to take risks. The Group of Seven major industrial countries (G7)'s share of global gross domestic product (GDP) has dropped from about two-thirds in 1989 to 43% in 2022.

Lachman pointed out that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have increasingly close relations. Russia and North Korea will sign a mutual defense treaty in 2024, and China's economic and technical support will help Russia endure Western sanctions and continue its war against Ukraine. Russia’s hybrid warfare approach against European countries that support Ukraine also increases the risk of unintended escalation.

The article also uses history as an example to illustrate that misjudgment of other countries' defense determination may have serious consequences. In 1914, Germany believed that Britain would not enter the war over Belgium's neutrality; in 1939, Hitler believed that Britain and France might back down again. Lachman connects these historical cases to current security commitment issues facing great powers.

Security across the Taiwan Strait hinges on the credibility of U.S. commitments

This warning also involves the Taiwan Strait. Lachman pointed out that Chinese President Xi Jinping must judge whether the opposition to using force to change Taiwan's status quo reflected in the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act still has substantive significance; Russian President Putin must evaluate whether the collective defense clause of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is reliable.

Lachman also cited the example of Taiwan producing about 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors, and believed that the United States is unlikely to accept Taiwan being absorbed by China. However, Trump’s attitude towards the security commitments of allies makes it more difficult to predict how the United States will act in a crisis. When countries are unable to determine whether the other party will honor its security commitments, miscalculation may increase the risk of conflict expansion.