National Future, what the voters who today support Vannacci voted for in the past

The President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella has promulgated the new electoral law, the Stabilicum. Now, however, the text could end up before the Council due to appeals from the opposition. The weight of the two coalitions and the trajectory of Futuro Nazionale were at the center of the episode of Numeri, the Sky TG24 program broadcast on 9 October 2026.

Once the Stabilicum was approved, calculations began on the possibility of the coalitions reaching 42%, a decisive threshold for obtaining the majority bonus and ensuring a solid parliamentary strength. Based on Youtrend polls, the center-right would easily exceed the threshold by including Vannacci, while without Futuro Nazionale it would stop at just above 40%. Even the centre-left, considered as a whole, could exceed 42%, but would lose ground if some components were excluded.

Attention was also focused on Futuro Nazionale: voting intentions from February to October 2026 show the movement currently just under 8%, at levels that have been growing for a few months and are now substantially stable.

If we look back in time, we can see that 40% of Vannacci's current electoral base comes from those who abstained from the 2022 elections.

Many of Vannacci's current supporters voted for FdI in 2022, but also Lega and M5s. The "Others" percentage, which stands at around 13%, also includes voters of Azione-Italia Viva (0.5%); Democratic Party and +Europe (0.4%).

Compared to the 2024 European elections, however, it is even more noticeable that Vannacci's electoral base comes mainly from people who had abstained (57.4%). Followed by voters at the time of Fratelli d'Italia (19.5%) and Lega (13.8%).