A majority of 67 of the 120 members of Israel's parliament have voted for ex-military chief Gadi Eisenkot as the next prime minister. But the path to office is still far from clear.
President Isaac Herzog has completed his consultations with the parties and wants to give the order to form a government on Sunday. It is considered very likely that it will go to the 66-year-old opposition politician. Whether Eisenkot can actually rally a majority behind him is still an open question.
A race to form a government
When the order is given, the clock starts ticking: Eisenkot would have 28 days to forge a coalition. If necessary, he could get a 14-day extension. During his efforts to form a government, he must expect interference from the camp of the right-wing conservative former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The 77-year-old is likely to try to prevent the change of power with political maneuvers.
If Eisenkot fails, another member of parliament can make an attempt over 28 days. If this remains unsuccessful, at least 61 MPs can agree on a candidate within 21 days. He is given another 14 days to form a government.
If this attempt also fails, parliament will automatically dissolve. A new election would have to be held within 90 days.
What could change under Eisenkot
Netanyahu is increasingly perceived internationally as a strain on Israel's relations. According to experts, a government under Eisenkot would not automatically mean a fundamental change of course in security and foreign policy. Eisenkot has little experience in foreign policy.
As a former chief of general staff, the chairman of the center party Jashar is considered conservative in terms of security policy. At the same time, Eisenkot was personally affected by the war: in the Gaza Strip he lost his son and two nephews who were deployed as soldiers. Even in view of this high personal price, he sees himself as having a special responsibility for Israel's future.
Eisenkot headed the Israel Defense Forces from 2015 to 2019. He studied political science in Haifa and is considered an expert on the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. The father of five children is the son of immigrants from Morocco (read a portrait of Eisenkot here).
In his personal appearance, Eisenkot differs greatly from Netanyahu. While the long-serving Prime Minister deliberately stages his public impact and is considered a skilled speaker, the former general is reserved and down-to-earth. Observers describe him as authentic and team-oriented. The party name Jaschar means “straightforward” and is also part of his political self-image.
When dealing with Iran, Eisenkot and Netanyahu pursue similar goals: both want to prevent the arch-enemy from acquiring nuclear weapons and eliminate its missile program. However, unlike Netanyahu, Eisenkot rejects the overthrow of the Iranian leadership as a declared war goal. However, how he would actually behave as head of government - i.e. continue or end the war - is unclear.
Eisenkot wants to curb settler violence
In the West Bank, Eisenkot wants to take more consistent action against violent settlers. On this point there is a “big difference” between Eisenkot and Netanyahu, said political scientist Jonathan Rynhold. He expects that Eisenkot will “take tough action” against settler violence. However, Eisenkot does not fundamentally question the settlement policy.
Under Netanyahu, Israel has massively pushed forward settlement construction in the occupied West Bank. At the same time, Israeli control was expanded over areas that the Palestinians claim for a future state.
When it comes to further action in the largely destroyed Gaza Strip, Eisenkot is more willing than Netanyahu to coordinate with Washington, says Rynhold. The focus would be on disarming the Islamist terrorist organization Hamas and establishing a new Palestinian administration. Netanyahu had thwarted such attempts.
Before the election, Eisenkot described the vision of an independent Palestinian state that exists peacefully side by side with Israel as a "bitter mistake." However, Rynhold believes that with a view to a two-state solution, he might be able to move under better political circumstances - as long as the Palestinians "take all necessary steps to ensure the security of Israel." Eisenkot is more pragmatic than Netanyahu.
Eisenkot also accuses Netanyahu of deliberately dividing Israeli society for years. Now he wants to replace him at the top of the government and “prove that there is another way.”
After the midterms, however, Washington's political course in the Middle East could change. Eisenkot would then not only have to repair relations with Washington, but also possibly prepare for a completely new wind from the USA.
