Washington. The devastating defeat in the US general election heralds the final act of President Donald Trump's presidency. For his Republicans, the search for their future direction is gaining momentum. How much closeness or distance to the president is required? Which topics and which faces does the party want to put forward - especially with a view to the presidential election in two years? Republican leaders are calling for a ruthless debate about this.
Less than 24 hours after the polls closed, the first Republicans ventured forward: with unusual clarity, Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war started by Trump for the debacle. "Everyone knows why we lost. And any discussion about what happens next has to start there," he said.
Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis compared the result to a meteorite impact, and the Republican Senator from Texas, Ted Cruz, even spoke of a "bloodbath". All three are said to have ambitions for the 2028 presidential election.
For ten years now, Trump has largely set the tone in the party and sells himself as a guarantee of its success. But after the midterms, the president is weakened. He himself put his stamp on the election campaign and insisted on hand-picked candidates, even in the face of resistance within the party. Their failure in Texas, for example, brings into focus the question of how good Trump is still doing for his party.
Because the US population not only gave him and the Republicans a lesson, but also a historic defeat. Even in Republican strongholds, Senate seats and governorships went to Democrats. In Kansas, a Democrat was elected to the US Senate for the first time in 94 years.
But are Republicans ready for a post-Trump era? Trump's absolute unique selling point remains his base in the “Make America Great Again” movement (MAGA), says political scientist David Brady from Stanford University to the German Press Agency. The MAGA base loyal to the president currently makes up around 40 to 50 percent of the party and continues to exert considerable influence, said Brady.
Brady expects that there will only be noticeable resistance to Trump in the party if his poll numbers fall even further. Approval is currently around 34 percent, depending on the survey. Until then, every Republican who is considering succeeding Trump or who is critical of him and his decisions will have to think very carefully about how to proceed.
Brady sees an example of this in Vice President Vance's behavior. Vance distanced himself somewhat from Trump with his statements. “At the same time, he finds himself in an area of tension: He has to weigh up how far he can go with his criticism without incurring Trump’s wrath.”
Trump's power also comes from the fact that he has found access to voters who would not have previously voted for the Republicans - including people without a college degree, says Brady. “It will be difficult for anyone who is not a Trumper.”
Trump was able to rely on iron loyalties until the election: anyone who drew the president's wrath had to expect the payoff from his supporters in the primaries and midterms. With the end of the election, this disciplinary element disappears. It is therefore possible that more party colleagues will venture out with open criticism.
This could be dangerous for Trump in the new Congress. Depending on outstanding decisions in two states, the Democrats in the Senate will have 54 or 56 of the 100 seats. So it would only take a few Republican dissenters to get to 60 votes: a crucial threshold for bringing legislation to a vote in the chamber. With a two-thirds majority in both chambers, Congress could even override a presidential veto.
The election result also brings a new dynamic into the run-up to the 2028 presidential election. The extent of the Republicans' defeat is so great that the field of potential candidates is significantly expanding, analyzed the former Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich. “Had the administration won a major victory, Vice President JD Vance would have had a strong argument to be considered the inevitable nominee.”
Gingrich, on the other hand, sees broad support for another member of the government. “The number of people who want to nominate Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a candidate is overwhelming.” Unlike Vance and Trump, Rubio and Gingrich are more likely to belong to the traditional conservative wing of the party.
According to media reports, Rubio is said to have already considered resigning from the government after the election. The reason given was considerations about his future. His ministry rejected this. Rubio himself told the New York Times that it was “always his plan” to stay in government until the end of his term. Asked about his ambitions, he said: “I really don’t say anything more about 2028.”
