(Central News Agency reporter Huang Yashi, Rome, 7th) Italian Prime Minister Meloni has just set a record for the longest-lived cabinet, creating a rare political stability in Italy. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti further optimistically predicted that Italy’s GDP growth rate this year is expected to reach 1%. However, he also warned that Europe's economic development is slowing down, and the United States is still the first choice ally to deal with China's competition.
On the 6th, Giovanni said at the Ambrosetti Forum, a well-known international financial and economic conference held in Northern Italy, that the Italian government’s initial GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate was 0.6%, and it has now achieved 0.8%. “If everything goes well, it may be close to 1%.”
However, Giorgetti believes that the biggest challenge to Italy's economic resilience is not only its own domestic development, but also comes from the current increasingly severe international situation.
He admitted frankly that the international community has failed to respond to the crisis, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to establish political or economic alliances. He believes that "even in the face of competition in key raw materials and artificial intelligence fields, the alliance with the United States is still crucial: the United States can compete with China, but Europe is completely absent."
Giorgetti said that progress is relative. Europe has made some progress in the digital euro and payment systems, but the development situation of the European capital market is more difficult, affecting productivity, economic security, and financing capabilities.
Qiao Jetti talked about the "European Paradox" problem, which means that Europe's top strength in scientific research cannot be effectively transformed into innovative products or market economic benefits.
He said that a large amount of savings in Europe cannot be converted into investment in Europe, and often end up flowing to the United States. A few countries are formulating reform measures, but there are only three months left before the end of the year, and the gap between savings and investment is still very obvious. "Why do Canadian pension funds invest in Italy, but Italians do not invest?"
Energy issues add to the complexity of the situation. Giorgetti said that Italy is paying for two wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the costs of both wars have been magnified. He said that Italy, which has been buying natural gas and oil from Russia in the past, now suffers from the fact that the European energy system is highly vulnerable to external shocks.
The price of diesel in Italy has soared to 2.15 euros (about NT$79) per liter, and in Taiwan it is about NT$29.3 per liter. Giorgetti pointed out that the price of diesel depends not so much on the price of Brent crude oil (Brent) but on the refining capacity. Ukraine has destroyed 40% of Russia's total refining capacity, which has also impacted the development of the European economy.
Italy is working hard to reduce the public finance deficit rate to below 3% in order to leave the EU's "Excessive Deficit Procedure" (EDP) next year. The next assessment time is September 22. Countries included in the EDP by the EU will have their credit ratings lowered and their fiscal expenditures subject to controls. Therefore, Giovanni believes that for Italy, the current government budget preparation should be based on the priority goal of leaving the EDP.
The Italian budget bill also focuses on retaining young people. Giorgetti emphasized that Italy loses about 300,000 people every year, which has a serious impact on GDP and productivity. "The population desert is approaching." Therefore, the budget bill must focus on young people. On the salary issue, the government will intervene through fiscal and social security measures, but it also requires companies to do their part. "Increasing talent salaries should be regarded as an investment."
Another focus is artificial intelligence. Qiao Jieti explained that the government will implement ultra-low-interest loans to provide greater stability for investment in AI technology. Artificial intelligence is not only crucial to productivity, but also "related to national security and technological sovereignty." Therefore, it is necessary to formulate a national strategy that is consistent with the European strategy.
