The first major AI developer goes public. Private investors can participate even before the stock market launches. Above all, the comparison with other IPOs provides orientation.
Anthropic goes public: The AI start-up could benefit from complex market mechanics. Photo: HB/Flux2 [M]
The supply of Anthropic shares is tight, with only a good six percent of the total stock at the IPO, which creates a high level of excess demand.
Analyzes show that large, unprofitable tech companies like Anthropic rise an average of almost 24 percent on the first day of trading, while almost half of all US IPOs since 1990 fall below the issue price within a year.
Anthropic's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 could generate additional price appreciation through index purchases.
The total supply of shares will increase significantly in the long term due to an over-allotment option and a large number of shares for employee options, which may result in a dilution of the investors' share and price pressure.
The summary was created and editorially checked using AI.
Frankfurt, Düsseldorf. Anthropic hasn't completed its presentation roadshow yet, but demand for the shares is already outstripping supply. When the Claude provider goes public (Initial Public Offering, IPO), demand is a good six times greater than the supply, reports the Bloomberg news agency.
Small investors play an important role in this. 20 percent of the available shares are reserved for private investors, as the stock market prospectus shows. This is significantly more than the five to ten percent that is typically available to retail investors in IPOs.
Private investors can also subscribe to the shares in Germany. Anthropic lists Consorsbank, Deutsche Bank, eToro, Flatex Degiro, ING, Scalable and Trade Republic as brokers on its website. Before small investors take action, they should consider five things.
1. The rating is controversial
Anthropic is the first major AI developer to go public. This means there is no direct comparison value. Analysts and investors are divided on whether Anthropic is valued too high or too low.
According to media reports, Anthropic originally wanted to go public with a valuation of around two trillion dollars. Now the valuation at the upper end of the price range is just over $1.4 trillion. Critics say: Based on the latest business figures, the stock is still not cheap.
In the past four quarters, Anthropic's sales were a good $35 billion. With a valuation of $1.4 trillion, this results in a price-to-sales ratio of almost 40. So investors pay a price of $40 for every dollar of annual sales for the stock.
That is a high value. For established companies, the price-to-sales ratio is usually in the low single-digit range, while for very high-growth software stocks it often reaches into the double-digit range. At Microsoft, for example, it is eleven. Compared to SpaceX's IPO, the valuation again seems low: the space company had a price-to-sales ratio of over 90.
The optimists point out that Anthropic is growing rapidly. Sales in the first nine months of this year were 1,200 percent higher than in the same period last year. Therefore, the annualized price-to-sales ratio provides a more realistic valuation picture. Here the sales from the previous quarter are extrapolated to the year. This almost halves the price-to-sales ratio to just under 21.
IPO
From the two trillion dream to a discount: The dilemma behind Anthropic's IPO
Investment strategist Peter Reichel from Bank Oddo BHF points out: "The central question is less and less whether AI is being used. What is becoming much more important is who can permanently capture the resulting economic value and achieve returns on the capital invested."
Anthropic has not yet managed to be sustainably profitable. In the third quarter, the company slipped back into the red. This is due, among other things, to the complex cost structure. Anthropic itself points out in its prospectus that margins can fluctuate greatly. This makes it difficult to estimate how sustainable the interest of investors is.
2. The supply of shares is initially scarce
Nevertheless, the tight supply speaks for a successful start to the stock market. Including the over-allotment option, Anthropic will only bring a good six percent of the outstanding shares onto the market.
By accepting a lower valuation than initially planned, the company led by Dario Amodei consciously created room for high excess demand, explains an investment banker.
According to tech analyst Daniel Ives, this was a good idea: “It is important that the IPO is easy to digest.” Anthropic has set the price range at $70 to $78. However, it could still increase, according to financial circles.
This creates an environment that lends itself to tactical, two-way, event-driven action. Sandeep RaoAnalyst at Leverage Shares
The move was well received by private investors. They could buy up to $250 million worth of shares on the first day of trading - more than twice as much as when SpaceX went public in June, where retail investors invested a net $118 million. This is what the analysis house Vanda Research calculated.
The basis is a sharp increase in derivatives trading with reference to not yet listed Anthropic shares on the Hyperliquid crypto exchange. The sharp increase in derivatives trading volume therefore indicates an extremely high level of buying interest from small investors at the start of trading.
Analyst Sandeep Rao from financial services provider Leverage Shares says: “When millions of retail investors channel market orders into such a limited free float, early price jumps become decoupled from fundamental valuation multiples.”
This is exactly what was wanted for Anthropic and the 20 or so investment banks involved, says Robert Hackel from the investment bank R.F. Lafferty: “It would be an important sign for Anthropic and for AI stocks in general if the share price achieved a significant increase in price on the first day of trading.”
3. The IPO history speaks for Anthropic
Even with a view to past IPOs, a price gain on the first day of trading is likely. This emerges from a study by equity researcher Jay Ritter from the University of Florida, which he published in February 2026.
In it, Ritter examines 2,689 IPOs of technology companies from 1980 to 2023. The years 1999 and 2000 were excluded. The two years were the peak of the Internet bubble on the stock market.
Since 1980, shares of certain technology companies have risen an average of 24 percent on their first day of trading. (Source: University of Florida)
In his study, Ritter shows the development separately according to size and profitability. Anthropic falls into the category of tech companies that had annual sales of at least $100 million at the time of their IPO but were not yet profitable.
Shares in such companies rose by an average of almost 24 percent on the first day of trading. Over a three-year period, the price gain amounts to 72 percent - 42 percentage points better than a special benchmark index developed by the University of Chicago.
On average, in past IPOs it was attractive for investors to participate in IPOs of large, unprofitable tech companies and to subscribe to shares before the official stock market launch. Short-term investors could speculate on a price jump on the first day of trading in order to realize profits quickly. However, for long-term investors it is usually worthwhile to hold the shares over a longer period of time.
49.2 percent of all shares that went public in the USA between 1990 and 2022 were quoted below their issue price a year later. (Source: Miami University)
The balance is significantly worse for investors who did not receive any shares during the subscription phase. Without the price gains from the first day of trading, the average return of large and loss-making tech companies fell to 41 percent over a three-year period. That is only eleven percentage points better than the reference index.
For investors who come away empty-handed in the subscription phase, stock market history therefore suggests a tactical approach to the Anthropic IPO. Anyone who buys on the first day of trading runs the risk of buying at a significantly higher price, which reduces the long-term return.
Historically, it has often been worthwhile for investors to wait for cheaper entry prices after an IPO. According to a study by Miami University, almost half of all US IPOs examined between 1990 and 2022 fell below their issue price within a year. The price trend of SpaceX shows this phenomenon as an example.
The issue price was $135. The closing price on the first day was almost $161, and SpaceX even closed the third day of trading at just over $211. However, the stock was unable to maintain this level. Since then, the price has been below the issue price on 28 trading days. In the case of the SpaceX IPO, investors could have waited quietly.
4. Expected ETF purchases support the price
The price should also be supported by the fact that Anthropic could quickly be included in the most important technology index, the Nasdaq 100. This should create additional demand in the first few trading days.
According to the new fast entry rule of the Nasdaq 100, a market capitalization among the 40 largest stocks on the 15th trading day triggers mandatory index inclusion. “Passive index funds and benchmark trackers managing hundreds of billions of dollars are then required to buy Anthropic shares regardless of valuation,” says analyst Rao.
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The example of SpaceX shows that index inclusion has an effect before the funds start their purchases. Speculators bought into SpaceX in the expectation that they could later sell the shares to the funds at a higher price. This further increased demand and reduced supply. Both drive up prices.
However, Rao warns: “The liquidity mechanism works in both directions.” Once the AI company is in the Nasdaq 100, demand from both speculators and funds disappears. This can put the price under pressure.
5. The supply of shares will increase significantly
Anthropic plans to issue and sell around 801 million A shares, i.e. regular ordinary shares, on November 19th. In addition, there are almost 24 million A shares that are being sold by existing shareholders. The basic offer therefore consists of 825 million A shares.
The banks involved in the IPO also have an over-allotment option (greenshoe). It gives them the right to sell up to almost 124 million additional A shares after the stock market launches. This increases the maximum offer to almost 949 million shares.
Anthropic has an additional 4.72 billion shares available for employee options and participation programs. (SEC)
On the first day of trading, shareholders who are not among the founders or larger existing shareholders are allowed to sell up to 316 million A shares. In the long term, investors are also threatened with a significant dilution of their shares.
According to the stock exchange prospectus, Anthropic has up to 4.72 billion additional shares available for employee options and participation programs. If these securities gradually come onto the market, the oversupply could put considerable pressure on the share price.
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Note: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell the stock. It is intended to stimulate discussion and can be a starting point for further research.
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