Gentiloni warns: the war in Ukraine is entering the 'total war' phase

The fifth winter of the war in Ukraine promises to be the season of "total war". Paolo Gentiloni writes this in an editorial in Repubblica, according to which "Russia will try to paralyze the economic and civil infrastructure of the invaded country by aiming to wear down its resistance and sow terror among the population. Ukraine will try to resist again, despite everything. In any case, we must know that total war is no longer a classic war of attrition, it is a dramatic prospect, which makes some aspects of the Italian debate appear surreal". In 2022, recalls the former European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, "many thought a rapid Russian breakthrough was likely, some had predicted that Putin's troops would penetrate as far as Kiev 'like butter'. It didn't happen that way. The failed breakthrough first transformed the conflict into trench warfare, then Ukrainian drones made their appearance and gradually acquired precision and depth, for example against the Black Sea fleet, putting the occupation forces in serious difficulty Russians, despite the support of thousands of North Korean soldiers and unwitting "volunteers" recruited mainly in Africa".

"Now the Russians have made up the gap in drones - continues Gentiloni - by using airborne ones on the target, and boast a clear superiority in ballistic missiles, given the almost exhaustion of Ukrainian anti-missile capabilities. And here we arrive at 'total war'. The objective no longer seems to be that of gaining ground in the areas of Donbass still under Ukrainian control: the Russian army seems stranded and is even losing ground at the front. The objective rather is to multiply the production of ballistic missiles, over a thousand a year, and to use missile dominance to destroy everything, and to spread terror. 'Without any more limits and rules' as according to Ukrainian intelligence Putin would have told his generals. Power plants, railways, data centers, steel mills, grain silos. And above all Kiev, its bridges, schools, supermarkets, sports fields, with continuous air alerts, day and night, with daily victims for human rights. Total war spares no expense, and so the military spending planned by Moscow for 2027 reaches 200 billion and is now a critical condition because if it is true that Russia's debt to GDP is still low - just above 20% - its cost is enormous, having to finance it in the internal market with interest rates close to 15%.

The result, concludes the former Prime Minister, "service of the debt will cost Moscow more than the total expenditure on health, education and housing. In short, Russia has transformed into a war economy, and into a junior partner of China. But it is not certain that this mutation will facilitate negotiations: 'Ending the war - observed the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba - could represent a greater risk for the regime than continuing it'. The Ukrainians at the moment seem intending to respond on a military level by strengthening their own production of ballistic missiles, and they have accustomed us to an extraordinary ability to resist and to resist by innovating. As for the political-diplomatic level, Kiev's strategy is clear: to resist to induce Putin to accept the ceasefire and negotiation. To succeed they need at least a neutral attitude from Trump, despite his repeated concessions to Putin, with whom there is a very strong push to do business, especially on oil as revealed by the New York Times of us, of European support. Which fortunately is not in question despite the hybrid war actions and the attempts to break the internal front of the EU countries in view of the next election year. 'You can count on us' Chancellor Merz reiterated yesterday in his surprise visit to Kiev, renewing the invitation to Putin to negotiate, as the German Foreign Minister had done, in vain, when meeting his Russian counterpart. In short, the time for negotiation does not yet seem to have come for Putin".

Three ambulances and a Lada Iskra were donated by the Russian city of St. Petersburg to Cuban health centers. The vehicles will go to pediatric hospitals in Havana and the provinces of Matanzas (west) and Santiago de Cuba (east). Russian Ambassador Viktor Koronelli declared that "after a long and difficult journey, these vehicles arrived in Cuba despite the inhumane commercial, economic, financial and energy blockade imposed by the United States government." "This humanitarian donation is proof of the historic bonds of friendship and solidarity that unite our brotherly peoples," added the Russian diplomat, as reported by the Tribuna de La Habana newspaper. The report highlighted that the donation agreement was reached on the initiative of the governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, during his visit to the island in November 2025, as part of cooperation commitments between the two countries. The director general of Havana's public health, Yagen Pomares, underlined the "extraordinary value" of St. Petersburg's contribution to the island's maternal and child health program. Over the past six years, Cuba has gone through one of the worst economic and social crises in decades, with food and fuel shortages, lack of medicines and deterioration of services, including healthcare, aggravated by runaway inflation and partial dollarisation. The oil embargo imposed by Washington since January, which the United Nations has deemed contrary to international law, along with a series of economic and financial sanctions aimed at increasing pressure on the island, has exacerbated an already difficult situation, further worsened by years of mismanagement by the Cuban government.