German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces leadership crisis amid plummeting poll numbers

Earlier this week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was in Rovaniemi in northern Finland — nearly 1,800 kilometers (about 1,100 miles) north of Berlin — but even that wasn't far enough to escape the unrest brewing in the German capital. Representatives from various countries had gathered there for the European Arctic Summit to discuss natural resources, geopolitics, security and climate change.

When asked by journalists about the mood in Berlin, the chancellor said he could understand the heated debate in Germany surrounding him but that the future of Europe was far more urgent.

"That's why I'm trying to convince my friends, my political party, and my parliamentary caucus that this is important — much more important than some of the domestic political debates we're having," he said.

Merz was referring to the discussions and rumors circulating about whether he is still the right person for the job — not even a year and a half after he took office as German chancellor back in May 2025. That's because public support for the federal government has hit a record low, and the chancellor's party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), recently suffered a crushing defeat in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt.

Why is Merz so unpopular?

Another heavy defeat looks likely in the state election coming up in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the lead-up to voting on September 20, the chancellor's party is polling at a dramatically low 7%. Failure to clear the 5% hurdle to enter the state parliament even seems possible. Whatever happens, the CDU is likely to record its worst-ever results in a state election.

The election earlier this month in Saxony-Anhalt was won by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has been classified as "confirmed right-wing extremist" by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the domestic intelligence agency, in this central German state.

Before taking office, Merz promised he would cut support for the AfD "in half." Instead, support for Merz's own party has dropped by half, and political circles in Berlin are asking: Is this Merz's fault? Is it perhaps due to his often abrasive communication style, or his failure to clearly explain important reforms — such as the one regarding the state pension system?

Members of the government are speaking openly about the lack of trust in the Merz cabinet. Education Minister Karin Prien (also of the CDU), for example, said on the public broadcaster ARD: "I believe that many people feel that the chancellor — and we in the CDU/CSU as well — lack the necessary empathy. And that has to change."

One frequently heard view is that Merz often comes across as lacking restraint. The planned pension reform, for example, would mean difficult cuts for many, but Merz often seems impatient when discussing it, commentators say. Back in July, the chancellor complained publicly that many citizens' attitudes about a "four-day workweek and work-life balance" could jeopardize the country's prosperity. Trade union representatives were outraged that the chancellor had accused Germans of being "lazy."

When the microphones and cameras are off, governing officials speak even more bluntly. The center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the CDU's junior coalition partner, are also sounding the alarm.

"You really get the impression that nerves are a bit frayed in the CDU right now," said SPD Parliamentary Secretary Dirk Wiese on the Welt TV channel. "I can only appeal once again to our coalition partner to really get back on track and work with us to do things better."

Two chancellor candidates: Söder and Wüst

But the problem remains that even if the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), agree that Merz must step down as chancellor, there is no clear successor.

SU leader Markus Söder, the Bavarian state premier, has been named as a possible candidate. However, he often and readily provokes the CDU and therefore lacks broad support within the party.

Another candidate would be Hendrik Wüst, the CDU state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state. Although he has quite capably led a coalition with the environmentalist Green Party for over four years, he has so far shown little inclination to move to Berlin. And most importantly, Wüst plans to run for reelection next April in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Provided there was enough support for a change of leadership in the governing coalition, there would be no major procedural challenges. Following the resignation of the chancellor, a successor is then appointed by parliamentary majority in the Bundestag.

However, if the sitting chancellor doesn't voluntarily step down, a "constructive vote of no confidence" is required. In this case, Wüst or Söder would have to openly challenge Merz — a scenario that no one can imagine at the moment.

Perhaps for this reason, too, all eight CDU state premiers declared in a joint statement on Wednesday that they still stood behind Merz. The statement reads: "People can trust that we will address their problems. As state premiers, we want to — and will — contribute to this effort together with the chancellor."

Germany needs "stability more than ever," the premiers said on Wednesday, calling for unity within the CDU and arguing that the way to rebuild voters' trust was through "listening and political action, not personnel debates."

The statement was signed by all eight premiers: Daniel Günther of Schleswig-Holstein, Boris Rhein of Hesse, Sven Schulze of Saxony-Anhalt, Kai Wegner of Berlin, Michael Kretschmer of Saxony, Gordon Schnieder of Rhineland-Palatinate, Mario Voigt of Thuringia and Wüst of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Pivotal state elections coming up

So while there isn't really a clear alternative to Merz, the chancellor also isn't someone who is likely to simply step down.

If rumors circulating in political circles in Berlin are to be believed, Merz wants to convene the executive committee of the CDU in Berlin as early as this coming Sunday evening, once the results of the state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are in. His plan is to stand in front of this group of 22 leading conservative politicians and pose the question of whether his party is still willing to put its trust in him.

Merz's schedule for the coming week illustrates just how seriously he views the situation. The chancellor has canceled his trip to the United Nations General Assembly, an engagement that had been planned well in advance and was treated as a fixed appointment. "Contrary to the original plans, he will not travel to New York, as he is needed in Berlin," government sources have confirmed.