
DIHK and ZEW officials warn of trade policy risks following US midterm elections, while domestic German industries face housing and automotive challenges.
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German business leaders are concerned about US trade policy volatility. Meanwhile, Berlin's coalition is considering the expropriation of large private housing portfolios.
The head of Germany's main Chamber of Commerce has called for more predictable US trade policy after Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress.
"We are counting first and foremost on stability in trade relations with the US," Helena Melnikov, chief executive of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), told the broadcaster ARD television. "No more zigzagging."
Trump's repeated tariff announcements, reversals and changes to implementation deadlines have made it harder for German exporters to plan.
Melnikov said reliability in Germany's biggest export market was "extremely important," but cautioned against predicting President Donald Trump's next economic moves.
She urged Germany to expand trading partnerships beyond the US and implement promised domestic economic reforms.
Achim Wambach, president of Germany's ZEW economic research institute, warned that losing his congressional majorities could push Trump to pursue more of his agenda through trade and foreign policy, where he retains extensive powers.
"Uncertainty about the future direction of US trade policy remains high," he said, also warning of potential deadlock over the US budget.
Wambach said Democratic control would probably not bring a fundamental return to free trade, pointing to broad bipartisan agreement on protecting US industry and trade policy toward China.
Confidence in Germany's auto industry has risen sharply, reaching its highest level since mid-2024, according to the Munich-based Ifo institute.
The survey was conducted in October, so it does not reflect the US midterm election results or their potential impact on trade policy.
Ifo's business climate index climbed from minus 33.2 to minus 4.1 points. Companies' assessment of their current situation turned positive for the first time since mid-2024, while expectations improved but remained negative overall.
"There can be no talk of an all-clear for the automotive industry," Ifo industry expert Anita Wolfl said, pointing to sharp monthly fluctuations in business confidence as evidence of considerable uncertainty.
Wolfl said a Franco-German agreement on a joint automotive strategy may have helped lift sentiment, but offered only temporary relief.
"It does not change the industry's central challenge of catching up with the leaders in technological competition," she said.
Germany's housing group Vonovia has criticized plans by Berlin's prospective governing coalition to bring large private housing portfolios into public ownership.
The socialist Left Party, Greens and center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have agreed during coalition negotiations to target companies owning more than 10,000 apartments. Their plan envisages compensation of no more than €16 billion ($18 billion) for 160,000 homes — an average of €100,000 each.
"The plans to bring private companies' apartments into public ownership naturally concern us," Vonovia CEO Luka Mucic said while presenting quarterly results.
He called the proposal "simply the wrong approach" and legally questionable, arguing that it would create no additional housing and undermine confidence in investment.
The Financial Times estimated Vonovia's Berlin properties were worth €20.4 billion, compared with potential compensation of €12 billion.
But Maximilian Fuhrmann, a housing researcher at the German Tenants' Association in North Rhine-Westphalia, disputed that assessment. Using Vonovia's stock market valuation and debt, he calculated an average value of just over €100,000 per apartment across its portfolio — broadly in line with the proposed compensation.

Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors reacted to Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate, anticipating potential constraints on government spending under the Trump administration.

Wall Street is set to open higher as Democrats take control of Congress in the midterm elections, dealing a blow to President Donald Trump. Tech stocks, particularly Elon Musk's companies, face heavy premarket pressure following unexpected Democratic victories in Texas.

AI stocks fell overnight after Democrats won key midterm races, including the Texas governorship, raising concerns about data center moratoriums. Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 2%, while CoreWeave fell 7%, Nebius Group 4%, SpaceX 6%, and Oracle 4% on Robinhood. Wells Fargo warned a Democratic Texas win could be a left-tail event for the AI trade.

Analysts warn a Democratic sweep of Congress in the 2026 midterms could pressure AI, defense, and financial stocks into year-end, while a Republican hold on both chambers might spur a rally. JPMorgan sees a blue wave knocking the S&P 500 by about half a percent on Wednesday, while Evercore ISI warns of a double-digit retreat if Iran escalates and Democrats take Congress.

Treasury yields fell as investors sought shelter from an equity futures sell-off sparked by projected Democratic victories in the U.S. midterm elections, including a projected House win and a flipped Senate seat in North Carolina. The 10-year yield dropped nearly 5 basis points to 4.902%, while S&P 500 futures fell 1.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures slid 2%.

US tech stocks recovered Tuesday afternoon after an AI spending selloff, with the S&P 500 up 0.37% and Nasdaq up 0.83% at market close, while investors weighed potential Democratic gains in the midterm elections and their implications for AI regulation.