Global food prices fall in October: Why wheat, dairy and meat are getting cheaper

Global food prices lost some ground in October, with cheaper cereals, dairy products and meat pulling down the overall index despite a sharp rise in sugar prices. The decline came amid subdued international demand and expectations of higher supplies of some key food commodities, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), which measures monthly movements in international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, slipped to 133.9 points in October 2026. This marked a decline of 1.6 points, or 1.2%, from the revised September reading. However, the easing in prices has not brought the index below its year-ago level. It was still 5.9% higher than in October last year, although 16.4% lower than its record peak of March 2022.

Cereals recorded one of the steepest declines among the major food categories. The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped 4.5% in October compared with the previous month. Wheat prices reversed their four-month upward trend, with subdued international demand and an improved production outlook, particularly in Argentina, weighing on prices. FAO said “The FAO Cereal Price Index fell 4.5 per cent from September. World wheat prices declined following four consecutive monthly increases, largely reflecting subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina”. Expectations that restrictions on Black Sea export flows could ease also put pressure on wheat prices. However, continuing logistical disruptions in the region prevented a sharper decline. Maize prices also softened after touching a three-year high in September. The progress of harvesting in the United States and expectations of ample supplies from major South American exporters contributed to the decline. Rice was an exception within the cereals category. The FAO All Rice Price Index rose 1.6% during October, as harvest delays in some exporting countries and adverse weather conditions pushed prices higher.

The decline extended to dairy products, with the FAO Dairy Price Index falling 1.1% from September. Lower international prices of butter and cheese, supported by ample supplies and subdued buying interest, drove the decline. These movements more than offset further increases in milk powder prices. Meat prices followed a similar trend. The FAO Meat Price Index fell 1.2% during the month, although it remained marginally above its level a year earlier. Prices of pig, ovine and bovine meats declined in October, while poultry meat prices remained broadly stable.

Sugar prices continued to move higher even as most other food commodities became cheaper. The FAO Sugar Price Index climbed 6.6% from September and stood 28.8% above its level a year ago. October marked its fourth consecutive monthly increase, taking the index to its highest level since December 2024. Rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and crushing operations in Brazil's key Centre-South region were the main reason behind the increase, FAO said. Concerns about production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand during the 2026/27 season also added to the upward pressure on prices.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index recorded a marginal increase of 0.3% in October. Higher prices of soybean and sunflower oils offset the decline in rapeseed oil quotations, leaving the overall index slightly higher than its September level. In a separate assessment, FAO forecast global cereal production at 2,999 million tonnes in 2026. This would make it the second-highest level on record, although it would remain below the record production level achieved in 2025. Global cereal trade is also expected to contract in the 2026/27 season. Trade volumes are projected to fall 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes, largely due to an expected 8.6% decline in wheat trade.