Gold and silver could remain volatile this week as investors weigh US inflation data against changing expectations for interest rates, while crude oil prices and geopolitical developments in the Middle East add to the list of factors influencing bullion markets, analysts said. The focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August 2026, due on September 11, with markets already seeing considerable speculation around the global interest rate outlook. "US inflation numbers would be the key trigger for bullion markets amid considerable speculation over the interest rate outlook," Pranav Mer, senior vice president, EBG - commodity & currency research, JM Financial Services Ltd told PTI. The outlook comes after both precious metals ended lower last week. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold futures for October delivery fell Rs 3,514, or 2.2 per cent, to Rs 1.52 lakh per 10 grams, while silver declined Rs 4,786, or nearly 2 per cent, to Rs 2.37 lakh per kg. In the international market, Comex gold futures for December delivery dropped $53.3, or nearly 1.2 per cent, during the week to end at $4,476.6 per ounce. Silver fell 1.52 per cent to $66.75 per ounce in New York. The fall in gold came after stronger-than-expected US jobs data on Friday strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this month, Mer said. The movement in domestic gold prices was also marked by sharp swings during the week. "MCX gold witnessed volatile moves this week, with the first half seeing continued profit booking following last Friday's correction after the Fed indicated the possibility of a rate hike," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said. Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at brokerage platform Lemonn, said bullion sold off as geopolitical concerns increasingly emerged as a rate risk rather than triggering a traditional safe-haven demand. The expectations around US rates, however, shifted during the week after dovish remarks from Fed governor Christopher Waller and indications that the Iran escalation could be contained. These developments pulled back rate-hike expectations, leading to a retreat in the US dollar and bond yields, Garg added. Silver experienced bigger moves in both directions, Garg said, as its industrial demand is also sensitive to the interest rate trajectory. Against this backdrop, Mer sees Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams as the key resistance level for gold. For silver, he continues to maintain a positive bias as long as prices hold above Rs 2.31 lakh per kg. "In gold, the prices look for resistance at Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams, while in case of silver we still maintain a positive bias till prices are above supports at Rs 2.31 lakh per kg," Mer said. Apart from the US inflation report, investors will track crude oil price movements and geopolitical tensions in Middle East for further cues on bullion prices. The week's other key economic data points include consumer price figures from Germany and China, GDP numbers from the Eurozone, Japan and the UK, and China's trade data, analysts said. Meanwhile, central bank buying continues to be part of the gold market landscape. The People's Bank of China bought 20 tonnes of gold, extending its purchases to a 21st consecutive month. Its gold buying for the year so far has reached 60 tonnes, taking total reserves to 2,366 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data.
