With the gong in the election broadcasts after the state election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday evening at 6 p.m., something that had already become apparent: the blue AfD bar in the graphics climbs higher than ever before in a state or federal election. According to forecasts, the AfD will achieve a record result of more than 44 percent - although initially with no prospect of the sole government that was the goal in the election campaign.
“This is a historic result,” said AfD leader Alice Weidel in an initial reaction on ZDF and spoke of a very clear government mandate. The strongest party has the task of forming a government. “Our hand is always outstretched.” However, AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund made it clear before the election that he only wanted to govern alone. On the evening of the election, he spoke of extending a hand to forces that wanted to change the country, such as the AfD - but he remained unclear as to what and who exactly he meant by that. Other parties rule out coalitions with the AfD.
No government, no risks
What happens next remains unclear. For the AfD, it is initially a furious election victory with a slightly bitter aftertaste, as it might not be enough for sole government. If there is no cooperation with others and the AfD remains in the opposition, this can also have strategic advantages: no government, no risks.
In practice, the party won in every case: the best result since the party was founded 13 years ago, and by far the strongest force ahead of the CDU. AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla said at the end of the election campaign: “This blue wave from Magdeburg will spill over to Berlin via Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the end, it will also lead to changes within the federal government.”
The AfD will now be significantly more powerful in the new state parliament. In the future, it will be able to use its own resources to set up committees of inquiry and block decisions that require two-thirds majorities, such as constitutional amendments. Nationwide, it can attack other parties, federal and state governments with even more force with the argument that it has great support from voters.
A foreseeable difficulty in finding a majority beyond the AfD and even possible CDU cooperation with the Left is likely to offer it a permanent political target.
The result has advantages and disadvantages for the AfD
Not governing would mean that the AfD would still not be able to gain experience in the executive branch and build up the appropriate staff, and it would be denied direct influence on areas such as the police, culture, schools or administration. But she was also spared the risks. It would not have to prove that it is implementing its announced plans, that it is governing in a technically sound manner and would not have to take responsibility for possible failures. When it comes to government responsibility, each party comes up against the limits of its scope for action in the federal constitutional state with separation of powers.
In the event of a government, the AfD, like other parties, could experience voters turning away again because expectations are disappointed - with consequences for the ambitions of the federal AfD, which was recently at 27 to 29 percent in the polls. Before the Saxony-Anhalt election, the AfD was also saying behind closed doors that it could be strategically more advantageous for the federal party not to have to govern in Magdeburg yet.
Siegmund: We have already made history
AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund had set the ambitious goal of “45 percent plus X” for Saxony-Anhalt in order to be able to govern alone. But he had already prepared arguments in case there was not enough for the desired absolute majority. No matter how the election turns out, “we have already made history.” What has been started in Saxony-Anhalt can no longer be stopped.
The 35-year-old has become the center of media attention in recent months with countless public appearances and social media posts. The entire election campaign was tailored to him. Supporters celebrated Siegmund like a pop star, people lined up for selfies and autographs. Even without the premiership, his weight in the AfD has grown significantly and party strategists are likely to see his style of election campaign as a template for future campaigns.
