Grading the Yankees hot seats: After playoff elimination, could Aaron Boone, Brian Cashman be out?

For the second straight season, the New York Yankees exited the postseason in the ALDS, and for the 17th straight season, they failed to win the World Series. The Yankees were swept in the Division Series by the AL East rival Tampa Bay Rays to extend their World Series drought to 17 years, tied for the longest in franchise history. Another long offseason is upon them.

Like every other team after their season ends, the Yankees will hold a press conference in the coming days to debrief and talk about the offseason ahead. General manager Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone will answer questions at that press conference and their futures will be a big topic. They always are, these are the Yankees, but this offseason more than most.

These are not George Steinbrenner's Yankees. These are Hal Steinbrenner's Yankees and Hal is much more patient and pragmatic than his father. He doesn't hire and fire coaches willy-nilly, he won't go on talk radio to call out his players, nothing like that. That's for the best, honestly. George did more harm than good before Derek Jeter & Co. showed up in the late 1990s.

What's next for Yankees? After ugly playoffs sweep, Aaron Boone, Aaron Judge face the biggest questions

Mike Axisa

That said, stability becomes stagnation at some point, and the Yankees are rapidly approaching that point, if they're not there already. Their seasons tend to play out the same way: they win a lot early, swoon through the summer months, rally late in the season, beat up on a lesser team in the postseason, then get eliminated by a superior opponent, often with silly errors involved.

When it happens once, well, that's baseball, Suzyn. When it happens every year -- seriously, this is an annual occurrence -- it points to a larger organizational issue, and Boone and Cashman are the public faces of the organization. Is either in danger of being replaced this offseason? Let's talk through it.

Aaron Boone

Contract status: Signed through 2027

Manager since: 2018

Hot seat: 🔥🔥🔥

You can maybe -- maybe -- talk me into Boone's seat being a 🔥🔥🔥🔥, but it is definitely not a 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥. Boone has the right people backing him, namely Cashman and Steinbrenner, plus his players love him. That includes captain Aaron Judge, who hasn't been shy about pushing for certain moves. We have no reason to think Boone has lost the clubhouse.

At the same time, the continued sloppy play and inability to beat higher-seeded teams in the postseason reflect poorly on Boone. That last bit isn't an exaggeration either. In Boone's nine seasons, the Yankees are 7-0 in postseason series against teams with a worse regular-season record, and 1-8 against teams with a better regular-season record. That is a rough look.

Nine years is a very long time for a manager. It's a long time for a manager who's led his team to the World Series. Managers have a shelf life. Messages get stale and a new voice is needed, and after nine seasons, it's not unreasonable to think the Yankees are there with Boone. Not when the same script plays out year after year after year without success.

If the Yankees fire Boone, it will be the first time they fire a manager in the middle of a contract since Stump Merrill in 1991. Buck Showalter, Joe Torre, and Joe Girardi were let go after their contracts expired. Boone has a year remaining, and, if the Yankees do fire him, it'll be out of character. Steinbrenner is very budget-conscious. Does he want to pay two managers in 2027?

My hunch -- I emphasize this is only a hunch -- is that Boone will return in 2027, but without a contract extension. He'll play out the year as a lame duck, and if the Yankees lose the same way in the postseason again, that'll be it. Boone simply has too much support from the right people in the organization (Cashman, Judge, Steinbrenner) for me to expect a change at manager.

Brian Cashman

Contract status: Expiring contract

General manager since: 1998 (yes, really)

Hot seat: 🔥

Cashman's seat is the opposite of hot. It's icy cold. Yes, his contract is up this offseason, but there is no reason -- I mean zero -- to think Steinbrenner is ready to make a change atop the baseball operations department. Cashman is an honorary Steinbrenner at this point. Steinbrenner trusts him implicitly and the two are very close. If Cashman wants to come back, he'll be back.

Therein lies the question: Does Cashman want to return for a 30th (!) season? It's a stressful job, especially in the New York media market, and burnout could finally be settling in. We have no indication of that, but that doesn't mean it's not happening behind the scenes. This isn't a "does Steinbrenner want Cashman back?" question. It's a "does Cashman want to come back?" question.

If there is a change at the top of the front office, it will most likely be made as a result of Cashman wanting to step into a less demanding role. That could mean leaving the Yankees entirely. More likely, he would be elevated to, say, president of baseball operations, and someone else would take over the day-to-day work. That someone could even be handpicked by Cashman.

(Vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring, a longtime Cashman lieutenant, is the odds-on favorite to replace Cashman.)

Cashman is successful by whatever metric Steinbrenner uses to define success. We don't know what that metric is beyond "it's not recent World Series titles, obviously." Every year, the Yankees have a winning record and a roster good enough to win the World Series. This isn't a team that is eons away from a championship, even if it sometimes feels like it.

Boone is far more likely to be replaced this offseason than Cashman, and even then, I wouldn't characterize it as likely. Steinbrenner is loyal to his people, maybe even to a fault, and the status quo has remained in place too long for me to think that'll change. Boone getting a lame duck year in 2027 and Cashman returning are the most likely outcomes. Any changes would come as a surprise.