Civil war in the Democratic Party: the socialist rise collides with the moderate strategy

When the young socialist Zohran Mamdani won the mayoralty of New York last year, a revolutionary hope invaded the left wing of the Democratic Party. With a close and charismatic style, a message that put the pocket at the center and a viral campaign on social networks, the assemblyman went from being a complete unknown to the beacon of progressivism in the United States in a few months. His victory against the candidate supported by the party establishment, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who received eleven times more money in donations, was then interpreted as a national singularity, which could not be replicated beyond the progressive bastion in a country in which, a year earlier, the far-right Donald Trump had won the presidential election, winning the popular vote and in all the competitive states in dispute.

But the cycle of primaries held this year ahead of the midterm elections on November 3, in which Democrats aspire to regain control of both legislative chambers and expand their power in numerous states, has shown that the socialist impulse is not limited to New York. Abdul el Sayed's recent victory in the Senate primary in Michigan against centrist Haley Stevens joined a growing list of rising leftist candidates, which has motivated a reaction from the moderate sector of the Democratic Party.

One of the main lobby groups at the center of the party, Third Way, has recently launched a $15 million investment to try to correct course. They view the Democratic Socialists of America, an independent organization whose candidates are running in the party primaries, as a threat to the Democratic soul as well as their electoral aspirations.

“The places that will decide the majority in the House and Senate are, by definition, hinge districts, and the only way to win in them is by nominating people who can attract at least 51% of the voters,” warns Matt Bennett, one of the founders of the moderate think tank, in an interview with La Vanguardia. These rising socialist candidates, he says, may convince Democratic voters wary of the establishment, but they will alienate many Republicans and independents, which could frustrate the party's goals in the legislative elections.

"Their ideas are so radical that they are completely un-American," Bennett denounces: "They want to abolish prisons, open the border completely, eliminate the presidency, the Senate and the Supreme Court, and give workers the means of production. They are Marxists, not European-style social democrats." Republicans are already taking advantage of their victories to warn about the arrival of “communism” in the country, a taboo label in the United States, and “we are very concerned that they could use that weapon against the entire party,” says the co-founder of Third Way.

Bennett worked on the two presidential campaigns of Bill Clinton, the ideological reference of the third way in the US, and entered his White House as deputy assistant secretary for Intergovernmental Affairs. In 2001, he became the Director of Public Affairs for Americans for Gun Safety, where he promoted bipartisan policies for gun regulation in the country. In 2005, he co-founded Third Way with the goal of supporting moderate, center-left candidates within the Democratic Party.

But the political climate has been completely transformed in the last two decades and public opinion has become polarized, especially since the presidencies of Barack Obama and Trump. “The Democratic Party has moved at evolutionary speed, while the Republicans have moved at revolutionary speed,” Bennett acknowledges. "We have already seen what happens when radicals take control of one of the two big parties. It has happened on the right and we want to prevent it from happening on the left at all costs," he says.

After Trump's return to the Oval Office, the Democratic apparatus was left impotent, unable to articulate a solid and exciting political alternative, and some progressive candidates are managing to capitalize on the disenchantment with the establishment. Numerous primary elections held this year have highlighted the internal battle between the two souls of the party: the progressive, which believes that right-wing populism must be defeated with left-wing populism, and the centrist, which challenges the moderate voter fed up with polarization.

Despite the socialist momentum, the center of the party has achieved important victories this year. This is the case of David Crowley, who this week narrowly won against the progressive Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary against the polls' forecast. Or Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, who last November defeated their Republican rivals and became governors of Virginia and New Jersey. Unlike the more leftist, more confrontational wing, the discourse of the moderates focuses on the need to mend ties, unite the country against extremism and work hand in hand with Republicans to approve bipartisan measures.

Despite the internal battle, which on some occasions has descended into the mud of personal insults, the Democrats are aware that they must bury their differences in November and articulate a national message in the legislative elections. “When the primaries are over, we all need to focus on the extremism of the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress,” Bennett says. The president has broken his promises: "He said that life would be easier, that prices would drop, that we would disengage from foreign affairs and that there would be an abundance of jobs. None of them have happened, on the contrary: he is waging an absurd war and has imposed stupid tariffs that are making everything more expensive. He is consumed by his own greed and narcissism. That is the message, and I think all Democrats are going to convey it in one way or another."

Beyond the rejection of Trump and his corruption, Democrats are united in the need for “health care to be much more affordable and available to everyone,” says Bennett, “although we have different ideas about how to get there.” Something similar occurs with the defense of the LGTBI community, discriminated against from Washington, with the need for a more redistributive tax system or to give humane treatment to immigrants.

But everything indicates that the open gap in the party will last, at least until the presidential elections. For the first time, this week some polls and prediction markets have placed Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, as a favorite to win the party's nomination in 2028. Her options will depend largely on the success of the progressives in the midterms, because if candidates like Sayed lose in competitive states like Michigan, the moderates will have a compelling argument in their hands: socialism can win in the Democratic strongholds, but the third way can convince the country.