Hamburg continues to grow – and is getting significantly older

Hamburg continues to grow, but the city of 2045 will differ from today's city in more than just its size. It will be older and the population development will be distributed differently across the city. While some neighborhoods are expected to grow significantly, others will have to prepare for declining population numbers.

This is shown by the new small-area population forecast from the Northern Statistics Office, which was published on Wednesday. According to this, around 1.93 million people will live in Hamburg in 2045, around 68,000 more than in 2025. This corresponds to an increase of 3.6 percent.

This growth is driven by immigration. Over the entire period, statisticians expect that around 85,400 more people will move to Hamburg than leave the city. This increase in migration more than offsets an opposite development: by 2045, around 17,400 more Hamburg residents are expected to die than are born. Without the expected migration gains, the city's population would shrink.

At the same time, the age structure is changing. Today, around 339,000 people aged 65 and over live in Hamburg; by 2045 there will be almost 414,000. This corresponds to an increase of around 22 percent and is therefore significantly higher than the growth in the overall population. The number of children and young people, on the other hand, is developing in the other direction. Statisticians expect a slight decline among those under the age of six, while the number among those aged between six and under 18 will fall from just under 210,000 to around 195,000.

The differences are also big when you look not at Hamburg as a whole, but at the individual districts. In addition to births, deaths and migration, where new apartments can be built in the coming years also plays a role. The statistics office has included corresponding new construction potential in its calculations.

The biggest changes occur where extensive new housing construction is taken into account. In Billwerder, the population could rise from today's 4,000 to around 13,000, more than tripling. For Kleiner Grasbrook and Steinwerder, the forecast assumes an increase from a good 1,000 to around 4,600 inhabitants. Increasing population numbers are also expected in already more densely populated neighborhoods. In Altona-Nord the population could grow by 19 percent to almost 29,500 people by 2045, and in Bahrenfeld by 14.6 percent to almost 34,000.

Elsewhere, developments are pointing in the opposite direction. Rissen could lose 3.8 percent of its residents, Sasel 3.3 percent, Groß Flottbek 3.1 percent and Othmarschen 2.8 percent. Rahlstedt, Hamburg's most populous district with more than 90,000 residents, could also shrink slightly. Larger percentage declines occur in small districts such as Spadenland, Stattenberg or Reitbrook, where changes of a few dozen residents already cause a corresponding rash.

Development also differs between the seven districts. The statisticians predict the highest growth for Bergedorf at 9.2 percent, followed by Hamburg-Mitte at 6.6 percent. For Wandsbek, however, the expected increase is 0.9 percent.

However, the forecast does not describe a fixed future. Migration movements can develop differently than expected, and how much of the housing construction taken into account is actually realized can also change. The forecast therefore shows how Hamburg could develop by 2045 under the underlying assumptions.