After the midterm elections and before the Shenzhen Summit, Japan paid close attention to Trump’s changes in foreign policy priorities.

(Deutsche Welle Chinese Network) With only days left before the leaders of the United States, China and Russia are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, Japan is paying close attention to whether there will be any signs of changes in Washington's policy towards the Indo-Pacific region.

This year's APEC meeting will be held in Shenzhen, China, scheduled for November 18th to 19th.

Tokyo is concerned that after suffering a setback in the midterm elections, U.S. President Trump may seek to quickly achieve a diplomatic outcome and package it as his glorious achievements as a statesman, but this outcome may not take into account the interests of U.S. regional allies.

Japan has moved quickly to try to figure out the White House's attitude. After the election results came out on November 3, the White House was deeply hit and in shock.

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi held talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris on Monday.

After the meeting, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that the two sides agreed to "further promote security cooperation to strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-US alliance."

The two sides also promised to "maintain close communication" on the situation in the Indo-Pacific region, but did not disclose further details.

Why is Japan worried?

Sebastian Maslow, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, said:

"Japan is worried that as Trump becomes a lame duck in domestic politics, he may use his presidential authority to shift his focus to foreign policy."

In an interview with Deutsche Welle, he said: "The agreement between the United States and China may give Xi Jinping the ability to further increase pressure on Japan. Given the current serious tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, this will put Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi into a difficult situation, and she will have to re-evaluate how to deal with U.S.-China relations."

Margarita Estévez-Abe, associate professor at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University in the United States and an expert on Japanese political issues, said that Japan is worried about "a transactional Trump who uses Taiwan as a bargaining chip."

She pointed out that after meeting with Xi Jinping in May this year, Trump described U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as "a good bargaining chip in negotiations with China."

She also said Tokyo was "disappointed" that Trump did not support China's move to impose rare earth export restrictions on Japan after Gao made comments on Taiwan last year. The Trump administration views the dispute between China and Japan as "Tokyo's own problem."

How to maintain geopolitical balance

In addition, Japan is also concerned about Washington's foreign policy stance toward North Korea and Russia.

"Trump has not undermined the Japan-U.S. alliance the same way he weakened NATO, but his olive branch to Moscow and North Korea has unsettled Tokyo," Esteves-Abbey said.

She added: "The United States considers Japan its most important military base in the Indo-Pacific, so it is not in Washington's interest to encourage Russia and North Korea to take a tougher stance against Japan. But if the United States' softening approach really exacerbates the threats Japan faces, Japan's trust in this alliance will be eroded. Japan can only hope that this does not happen."

Ultimately, Tokyo wants to maintain geopolitical balance in the region and prevent already tense situations from escalating further. But Japan now increasingly doubts the commitment of a security and trade partner it has stood side by side with since 1945.

Maslow, a professor of political science, believes that Japan’s security strategy emphasizes maintaining the status quo, that is, defending the liberal international order and curbing the expansion of China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

"However, in order to achieve this goal, Japan has always regarded the Japan-US alliance as the cornerstone of its foreign and security policy. The reality remains that once this alliance system collapses, Japan does not have a 'Plan B'."

Diverse security partnerships

He pointed out that Japan's efforts to strengthen its military power have always been limited to the framework of the Japan-US alliance. Although there have been calls in Japan to establish independent defense capabilities, given the limited capabilities of its defense industry and the lack of important resources, including key intelligence, it is not realistic to achieve this goal, at least in the short term.

Over the past decade, Tokyo has actively promoted the diversification of security partnerships, strengthened defense cooperation with EU member states and NATO, established a quasi-alliance with Australia, and joined a number of small multilateral cooperation mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific region, including cooperation with the Philippines.

Maslow said this reflects Japan's desire to play a more proactive role in shaping regional and global security order.

Japan studies scholar Esteves Abbe said Tokyo hopes that no major conflict will break out in the region during Trump's remaining two years in office, and that Washington's determination will not be tested "until a new administration that is strategically easier to cooperate with takes office."

However, Maslow emphasized: "Hope is not a strategy." Tokyo must continue to work hard to maintain this alliance and further demonstrate its commitment to security affairs by increasing defense spending and maintaining economic security.