Dusseldorf. The federal government's aid for energy-intensive companies could become significantly more expensive. This is shown by a calculation by Handelsblatt based on data from the consultancy Aurora Energy Research. Accordingly, the state could spend around a billion euros more on industrial electricity prices next year alone than this year.
The reason is the energy prices, which have risen significantly due to the Iran war: Because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for months, major supplier Qatar can hardly export gas anymore. This means that the global market is missing around a fifth of the usual gas quantities.
The price of gas is now around 90 euros per megawatt hour - three times as high as before the start of the war. Because the energy source is used in gas power plants to produce electricity, among other things, the price of electricity also increases.
Markus F. Schmidt, Chairman of the State Energy Commission at the CDU Economic Council, warns: "The industrial electricity aid was decided at a moderate electricity price. But at the current electricity price level, the burden on the federal budget is increasing massively."
In fact, the federal government clearly did not take an extreme scenario like the current one into account when it introduced a subsidy for industry's electricity costs in the spring. According to a document from the EU Commission, which had to release the state aid, a total of 3.8 billion euros are earmarked for the measure for the years 2026 to 2028. The actual costs are likely to be many times higher than this estimate.
The industrial electricity aid stipulates that eligible companies receive a subsidy on half of their eligible electricity: for this half, the electricity costs are reduced to 50 euros per megawatt hour. With an electricity price of 80 euros per megawatt hour, a company would receive 30 euros per megawatt hour as compensation for half of the amount of electricity purchased.
The problem for the state lies in this logic: If the electricity price is not 80 but 100 euros, the state pays out 50 euros per megawatt hour to the companies instead of 30 euros. Sharply rising electricity prices are therefore placing additional strain on the budget.
The simplified example is close to the current figures: the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) has published a reference price of 87.44 euros per megawatt hour for 2026. This means that 37.44 euros will be paid out per megawatt hour of electricity this year, so that companies will receive a price of 50 euros per megawatt hour for the eligible amounts of electricity.
But it is already clear that it will be significantly more expensive in 2027. This is because the reference price is calculated based on futures market prices. This means: The reference price for 2027 results from the average price for electricity if it was purchased for 2027 one year in advance.
Energy expert Mats Kröger from Aurora Energy Research says: “The average futures market prices for 2027 are currently around 100 euros per megawatt hour.” If prices remained at the current level until the end of the year, this average would rise to 110 euros, according to Kröger.
For the state, the calculation would look like this: For prices above 100 euros, the federal government no longer subsidizes the electricity price down to 50 euros, but only reduces it by half. With a reference price of 110 euros, companies would receive 55 euros in support, meaning they would also have to pay 55 euros per megawatt hour.
For the state, the burden would increase by around 18 euros per megawatt hour compared to 2026.
It is not yet known how many megawatt hours of electricity the state will support in a year. However, a leaked document on the 2027 federal budget states that the state is planning around 2.4 billion euros to finance the industrial electricity price for 2026.
This means that the amount of electricity supported would be a maximum of 64 million megawatt hours. If the state had to subsidize the same amount of electricity at a higher price the following year, the budget burden would rise from 2.4 to 3.5 billion euros.
If the amount of electricity subsidized was lower, the additional burden could be lower. The auditor Tobias Adelfang from KPMG, who advises companies on industrial electricity prices, estimates that between 25 and 30 million megawatt hours of electricity in Germany could be subsidized. At this level, the burden on the state would increase from around 900 million euros to around 1.4 billion euros.
Public finances would therefore be burdened by half a billion euros to a billion euros more due to high energy prices for 2027 alone. The EU's cost estimate of 3.8 billion euros for three years could almost be reached in a single year - and over three years it could be far exceeded.
And: The positive effect for the industry is counteracted by other effects. Auditor Adelfang says: “The relief in the context of the industrial electricity price is associated with high costs for the state, but is not particularly high for the companies.”
One problem: increases in network fees, additional taxes and levies would make electricity more expensive again to a similar extent. Industry associations such as the Steel Association demanded that industry should be subject to an electricity price of 50 euros per megawatt hour, including all duties, fees and taxes - this is the only way to actually ensure international competitiveness.
