The American midterm elections are getting closer. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he can only lose an election if there was fraud. He will not accept a loss in the election and will therefore use all conceivable means, legal and illegal, to guard his power.
The president's mental incapacity is also ominous. This spring, 30 leading medical professors wrote in an address to Congress that Trump "poses a clear danger to our country and the world [...] steps must be taken to remove him from office with the utmost urgency" (S2162 Congressional record - Senate, 4/30). Trump's lack of impulse control worries them especially given his power over America's nuclear weapons, a danger brought to the fore by the threat to "annihilate" Iran if they don't agree to a deal.
Ahead of the November 3 election, Trump is systematically sowing distrust in the electoral system and manipulating it with the help of the agencies he controls. The goals are to depress voter turnout, which in the 2022 midterm elections was 46 percent, and to lay the groundwork for accusations of fraud if the election goes against him.
Trump cultivates a cult of personality and presents himself as a strong man who alone represents the will of the people, a post-fascist self-view
Trump also violates democracy when he claims there are no limits to his exercise of power (Axios 6/18). The president pursues his opponents—politicians, the media, universities, law firms, the LGBTQI movement, the labor union movement—with decrees, threats, lawsuits, and smears. Democratic politicians are called "wicked communists and animals" (Heather Cox Richardson, Substack 6/26). He deploys the military to persecute political opponents and immigrants, a form of civil war. Trump cultivates a cult of personality and presents himself as a strong man who alone represents the will of the people, a post-fascist self-view.
Trump himself has several times flirted with the idea of canceling the mid-term elections (Time 6/1) and some observers, such as his former lawyer Ty Cobb, do not rule out that for that reason he may declare a state of emergency with reference to an emergency. In fact, he has on numerous occasions, in violation of the Constitution, invoked such an emergency for decisions in several areas of society (PBS News 16/7).
But if the election is held and the Republicans lose their majority in Congress, Trump can sit above the Constitution for the last two years of his presidency, especially since he has eternal immunity for any criminal acts he may be deemed to have committed while in office. He can also issue illegal decrees in defiance of the courts, which cannot compel him to execute their judgments.
Only a gigantic popular uprising could then bring Trump down
And the presidential election in 2028? The respected historian Timothy Snyder believes that Trump may well postpone the election indefinitely. Trump's proposal to increase funding for the military by 50 percent lacks rationality, according to Snyder, who claims it constitutes a form of bribing the military to support him as he tries to repeal the Constitution (Snyder, “Trump's military dictatorship budget,” Substack 4/6).
Trump could invoke an emergency as a pretext to postpone the election and the military would follow his commander-in-chief, says Snyder. Only a gigantic popular uprising could then bring Trump down. But such appears unlikely, to say the least.
Indeed, in 2025 the United States fell from 20th to 51st in a ranking of 179 countries' democracies (V-Dem Report 2026). But isn't it an exaggeration to claim that America's democracy is on the verge of collapse? After all, there are courts, media and universities that do not bend. However, the overall criterion for a democracy is considered to be that the party that has lost power leaves it voluntarily (Przeworski, New York Times 11/9).
But Trump did not do that in 2020. On the contrary, he encouraged the storming of the Capitol, the purpose of which was to overturn the election results, and he has pardoned more than 1,500 people convicted of the storming.
Trump's autocratic reflex is also expressed on the global level. He is a Prince of Peace like Jesus but does not respect the territorial integrity of other countries: Gaza, Greenland, Iran, Canada, Cuba, the Panama Canal, Venezuela.
The US also has an increasingly weak commitment to democracy and human rights on a global level. Trump befriends autocratic leaders but attacks friendly democrats, US democracy aid has almost ceased, Trump intervenes in elections in favor of autocrats (Bolsonaro, Milei, Orbán) and his disdain for democracy lends legitimacy to autocrats in other countries.
This development affects Swedish foreign policy, especially our actions in the EU. We should of course work to ensure that the EU's stance is no longer so subservient to Trump's capricious and self-righteous actions, which, incidentally, will be further strengthened by his ongoing cognitive decline.
Europe has so far joined his attack on the rules-based world order, his contempt for the EU, his tariffs and creeping before Putin. In order to reduce dependence on the US, the EU should, as a counter force to the US, work for an economic world order based on free trade and investment. Sweden and the EU should also be a particularly strong voice in the world for democracy and human rights, to fill the vacuum created by the US's democratic retreat.
