
The strategic advance threatens global shipping lanes as tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran.
AI-generated summary
The Houthis have been attacking Red Sea shipping since 2023, citing solidarity with Palestinians. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a critical artery for 10-12 percent of global trade.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized the Red Sea port of Mokha and captured the nearby Perim island on Friday, tightening their grip around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait while the U.S.-Iran war chokes another of the world’s critical shipping routes at Hormuz.
The swift advance marks the Houthis’ biggest territorial expansion in years. According to reports from the Associated Press, fighters swept south along Yemen’s western coast as Saudi-backed government forces withdrew, prompting Saudi airstrikes on Mokha airport.
That surge puts the Houthis in a strong position around Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow southern gateway to the Red Sea and Suez Canal through which roughly 10 to 12 percent of global trade passes.
At its narrowest, the strait is only about 30 kilometers wide. Yemen’s internationally recognized President Rashad al-Alimi warned Thursday it “must not be allowed to become another Strait of Hormuz.”
The Iranian-supported rebel advance raises the prospect of simultaneous disruption at two of global trade’s most vital chokepoints, potentially compounding shipping delays, supply shortages and inflationary pressure worldwide.
Tehran on Friday voiced support for Yemen’s "independence, national sovereignty and territorial integrity," while blaming the country’s crisis on blockade and foreign military intervention. The Iranian foreign ministry's statement, published on official state-run news agency IRNA, did not address the Houthi advance or Bab al-Mandeb.
The Houthis’ military capabilities have also drawn fresh scrutiny. A weapons cell based in Northern Yemen, a large part of which is controlled by the Houthis, used Anthropic’s Claude AI to develop guidance, navigation and control software for rockets and ballistic missiles, the tech giant reported in a memo published Thursday.
Western concerns are growing over the ramifications of the Iran war spreading further across the region.
Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot warned Friday in a post on X that “Bab al-Mandab is not a bargaining chip.”
“Blocking or disrupting this vital artery puts global supply chains at risk,” he said, warning of higher prices and shortages of “food, fuel and other essential goods.” Prévot urged Iran to use its influence “for de-escalation rather than confrontation.”
Beginning in 2023, the Houthis launched a sustained campaign of attacks on shipping in the southern Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, which they said was in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza during the Hamas-Israel war.
That prompted major shipping firms and oil companies — including Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, Maersk, BP and Frontline — to reroute vessels away from the Suez Canal and around Africa instead. Traffic has still not returned to pre-2023 levels, although some companies had begun testing a return to the route this summer.
According to a report by Axios, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called U.S. President Donald Trump twice Thursday to urge immediate U.S. strikes on the Houthis. Trump declined direct military action for now.
On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Sept. 5 and another five days later, while Iran says it has retaliated against commercial vessels using what it considers unauthorized routes.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels, with recent maritime data putting average daily crossings in the low teens compared with approximately 138 prior to Feb. 28, when Israel and the U.S. began attacking Iran.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Continued rerouting of commercial vessels away from the Red Sea.
Very likely · Within weeks

Yemen's Houthi rebels have seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait and Mayyun Island, effectively dominating a critical Red Sea shipping lane. The rapid offensive, which included the capture of Mokha and Dhubab, has sparked international concerns over maritime trade.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait and Mayyun Island following government withdrawals, threatening critical global oil and shipping lanes amid escalating conflict.

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