Semiconductor research organization SemiAnalysis suggested that Nvidia chip smuggling may have been a factor in Jensen Huang's departure from the company. More than 1.5 GW of Nvidia AI hardware subject to U.S. export restrictions has arrived in China in recent years, the organization estimates. However, the analysis particularly emphasizes that this claim is not supported by direct evidence.
The extent of Nvidia chip smuggling
The forecast is based on SemiAnalysis' tracking system called the Accelerator Model. By Tom's Hardware's calculation, this power equates to approximately 1.5 million to 2.1 million accelerators, depending on the GPU model. The account does not include models such as H20 and H800, which Nvidia developed in accordance with export rules.
The organization says the scale of the smuggled shipments is similar to the US Department of Commerce's assessments. It has not disclosed the exact number of GPUs arriving in China and their distribution according to product generations.
Here's an example for comparison: Colossus One, owned by Elon Musk's xAI company, runs about 220 thousand to 230 thousand Hopper H100 and H200 GPUs. Colossus 2's target is 1.2 million Blackwell B200 and B300 GPUs. The hardware presumed to be heading to China could rival or even surpass this operation, depending on the type of GPU.
Two investigations, billions of dollars
SemiAnalysis points to two investigations in the US and Taiwan. In the first, Supermicro co-founder Wally Liaw, Taiwan sales manager Steven Chang and contractor Willy Sun were charged in March 2026. According to the indictment, the server, worth approximately $2.5 billion, was portrayed as having been sold to a company in Southeast Asia. $510 million of this was later directed to China and provided by Alibaba. It is claimed that the suspects changed their identity tags and used different systems during inspections.
The second investigation involves nine individuals with ties to Nvidia, Albatron, Chief Telecom, Flying Tiger and Supermicro. According to Taiwanese authorities, the group attempted to export 130 servers with Nvidia B300 GPUs without permission. 74 of them reached China. It is stated that front companies, fake documents and delivery addresses shown in Japan were used. Both cases are still in court.
Alice Huang allegations and Nvidia chip smuggling
According to a report, Megaspeed executive Alice Huang was personally involved in smuggling Nvidia hardware to China. Allegedly around 240 thousand Nvidia GPUs, mostly H100 and H200, went to China this way. The total value may have reached $7.5 billion.
The claim that Alice Huang is linked to Chinese intelligence has not been confirmed. Megaspeed also denies the accusations and said it would cooperate with the US investigation.
Policy front: RASA bill
According to SemiAnalysis, Huang was among the most influential voices opposing completely cutting off Chinese developers' access to American hardware. Because he argued that removing Chinese researchers from the Nvidia ecosystem would harm the technological superiority of the USA.
The Remote Access Security Act (RASA), passed by the US House of Representatives, is at the center of this debate. The bill seeks to regulate Chinese companies from remotely renting restricted hardware from data centers in Europe, the Middle East or Asia. It is stated that Nvidia and Oracle are lobbying against it.
The organization says Huang's departure may have removed one of the powerful figures in the way of advocates of tougher restrictions. There is no confirmed evidence that US intelligence agencies played a role in Nvidia management's decision.
SemiAnalysis also warns that completely cutting off access could be counterproductive. For this reason, Chinese companies may turn to domestic manufacturers such as Huawei. Moreover, the sharing of open source software developed by Chinese researchers with Western developers may decrease. Renting GPUs from overseas data centers provides income to American companies and allows them to cut off access to Washington when necessary.
