According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 21.6 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz daily in the last quarter of 2025. After the US/Israel-Iran War started, this amount decreased to 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of the year. During the same period, daily LNG flow decreased from 10.5 billion cubic feet to 800 million cubic feet.
Thus, while the amount of oil passing through Hormuz decreased by 77 percent in the said period, the decrease in LNG reached 92 percent. The sharp decline in LNG flow shows that LNG transportation is further disrupted on this strategically important route.
According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), approximately one-fifth of global LNG supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only sea route used by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for LNG exports.
Following the escalation of the conflicts, there was a serious decline in the global LNG market in the March-June period. GECF estimates that more than 300 LNG cargoes could not be shipped from Qatar and approximately 20 from the UAE during this period.
Weekly data from London-based maritime data and analysis company Clarksons Research also reveals that the separation in oil and LNG transportation is reflected in ship traffic. While 66 crude oil tankers and 16 LNG ships passed through Hormuz in the week of 21-27 June, no LNG ship passage was recorded, compared to 4 crude oil tankers in the week of 23-29 August.
On the oil side, alternative transportation routes have come into play. According to EIA, the amount of oil passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait increased from 5.4 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2025 to 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, with the effect of Saudi Arabia directing some of the oil to Yanbu Port in the Red Sea via the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline).
Mehdy Touil, Senior LNG Expert of Germany-based Calypso Commodities, told the AA correspondent that there are important structural differences in terms of transportation and infrastructure in oil and LNG.
Touil stated that oil has a larger and flexible tanker fleet as well as large storage capacity, while LNG does not have the same flexibility.
Pointing out that LNG ships specially designed for cryogenic transportation also make a significant difference in terms of insurance, Touil explained that the risk tolerance on the LNG side is lower compared to other hydrocarbons.
Touil stated that the concentration of Qatar's LNG export infrastructure in a certain region is also an important constraint.
Pointing out that Qatar's LNG export system is concentrated in Ras Laffan and that the country's LNG exports by sea have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Touil emphasized that there is no alternative sea exit for Qatari LNG.
"You can change the route of a cargo, but you cannot change the route of the huge export infrastructure that Qatar has developed over decades," Touil said. he said.
Stating that the loss in LNG supply via Hormuz is difficult to be compensated by other producers in a short time, Touil stated that most of the global liquefaction facilities operate at maximum capacity, and some of them operate above this level from time to time.
Touil emphasized that the development of new LNG export facilities will require several years and stated that he does not expect Qatar's fundamental position in the global LNG sector to be assumed by another producer in the near future.
Clarksons LNG Analytics President Fabio Reale said that oil tankers are lower cost than LNG tankers, and this difference may have an impact on ship owners' risk approach.
Reale pointed out that oil tanker owners may be more willing to take the risk of transiting Hormuz than LNG ship owners.
Stating that some additional war insurance premiums are calculated based on the value of the ship and that LNG ship owners do not want to take on the security risk in the region, Reale noted that the risk of attack and mine-related damage must decrease significantly in order for LNG traffic to recover.
University of Oslo Postdoctoral Research Fellow Francesco Sassi stated that the risks posed by conflicts in the region on ship traffic and energy production infrastructure make the decline in LNG transportation more evident.
Sassi stated that as the war continued, Gulf countries resorted to their own means to ensure the security of energy cargoes, and this increased the role of security and geopolitical elements in oil, LNG and other commodity markets.
Emphasizing that a return to pre-war LNG transportation levels is very difficult under current conditions, Sassi stated that predictions about when energy flows will stabilize carry high uncertainty.
Sassi said that although oil can be transported through various alternative infrastructures, including pipelines, compared to LNG, he does not expect oil flows to return to pre-war levels any time soon.
