Bab al-Mandap after Hormuz: How Do Developments in Yemen Affect Global Trade?

Since the beginning of the war, all eyes have been on the Strait of Hormuz, one of Iran's most important trump cards. Now, attention is turned to another strategic passage, the Babülmandep Strait.

This narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean is one of the most important economic links between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal. For this reason, every development around the Bosphorus is closely followed not only in terms of regional security but also in terms of global trade. The recent activity on Yemen's Red Sea coast has brought this critical passage back to the center of the agenda.

It was reported that Houthi forces launched a rapid offensive and captured new areas directly overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. News that Houthi forces later moved to Mayyun Island, also known as 'Perim', located in the middle of the strait, further increased concerns.

However, the issue is not just about the Houthis' progress on the field. What happened in Babülmandep opens the door to a much bigger account that goes beyond the balance of power in the region. So, how does Iran benefit from this situation?

Mayyun Island, also known as 'Perim'

“THE COMMENTS THAT IRAN WANTS TO PUT PRESSURE THROUGH BABULMENDEP ARE NOT UNREASONABLE”

Following all these developments, one of the main debates is whether Iran is trying to create a new pressure area through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. President of the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM) Dr. Serhan Afacan pointed out that the developments may be linked to Tehran's regional calculations.

Afacan stated that there are recent assessments that Iran's capacity to put pressure on the Strait of Hormuz has been limited due to US sanctions and economic pressures, and said that Babulmandep can be seen as another trump card for Iran in this respect. The expert made the following comments:

-- Iran is trying to put pressure on Hormuz, but has recently tried not to respond due to the US economic sanctions and blockade. Therefore, comments were made that Iran was applying its other trump card, and this was Bab al-Mandep. By closing both sides, increasing the costs through international trade and thus effectively applying the pressure it wants to exert... This is the issue. Therefore, a reference is made to Iran.

-- Iranian officials are already saying this. Even the leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, published messages one after another and said, "We will carry the war to other areas." Everyone knows that this is not Lebanon. Iran cannot do such a thing in Lebanon right now; There is already a lot of pressure there. Bab al-Mandab and the Houthis were on everyone's mind. The fact that the Houthis began to dominate Bab al-Mandeb as of September 10 naturally strengthened the idea that there was such a synchronization. Therefore, I think it is not unreasonable to think that Iran is behind this. However, I don't think this explains everything.

“The Houthis DO NOT ACT ONLY ON IRAN'S INSTRUCTIONS”

It is a separate matter of debate to what extent the Houthis' recent progress in the field is under the guidance of Iran.

Dr. Serhan Afacan emphasized that it cannot be denied that Iran supports the Houthis, but the group also has its own political and military goals. Afacan stated that the Houthis have been trying to strengthen their position in Yemen for a long time and stated that this formation should not be considered as a structure that acts on instructions from Tehran:

"Because the Houthis are fighting much more effectively. In fact, this has been the case for a long time. In particular, Saudi Arabia is trying to effectively support the legitimate government in Yemen. They even made a ceasefire in 2022. This ceasefire continued sluggishly and was broken from time to time. Now we are seeing the most violent conflicts again. The Houthis have actually been preparing for this for a very long time. However, I am definitely not saying that this structure does not receive help from Iran. They definitely receive help; they already say this themselves."

However, Afacan said that this structure does not act in line with Iran's interests and said, "So the process does not work like this: Someone from Tehran tells the Houthis to 'Take action' and they take action. There is no such thing. The Houthis are already trying to strengthen their positions in Yemen. If possible, they want to take over the entire country and position themselves as the sole political authority in Yemen. In this sense, I believe they are following their own agenda."

HOW WAS THE IRAN-HUSHI LINE CREATED?

After the revolution in 1979, Iran strengthened its relations with armed groups in the region to increase its influence in the Middle East. In this strategy carried out through the Revolutionary Guards and especially the Quds Force, Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen have become important actors.

The roots of the Houthi movement extend to the Zaidi Shiite movement in northern Yemen. The structure, which took shape in the late 1980s and 1990s, turned into an armed group conflicting with the central government over the years. When the Houthis captured the capital Sanaa in 2014, the crisis in Yemen turned into a regional war and a military intervention led by Saudi Arabia began. Iran did not directly establish the Houthis, but the weapons, missile technology, unmanned aerial vehicles, training and technical support it provided contributed to the growth of the group's military capacity.

AS SAUDI ARABIA IS SUFFERED, THE MECCA AGREEMENT IS COMING TO THE AGENDA! WHAT CAN Türkiye AND PAKISTAN DO?

Whether the Houthis' latest advance will become permanent and how the forces in the region will respond to it also stands out as a critical question. The statements of the Yemeni government, supported by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, and the attitude of other actors in the region may be decisive in shaping the next process.

Dr. Serhan Afacan stated that a comprehensive military operation to completely remove the Houthis from Yemen does not seem easy under the current conditions. According to him, the main goal in the short term may be to prevent the Houthis from advancing further:

"This is the question that everyone is wondering about these days: Can the Houthis become a full political authority in Yemen? In this context, the question 'What will Pakistan and Turkey do?' also comes to the fore. Because there are attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil pipeline and the Mecca Agreement is on the agenda. Pakistan has already made harsh criticisms, and Turkey has condemned the Houthis. However, at the end of the day, the action to be taken on the field will determine where the process will go. My opinion is this: As of now, there will be no strong military force that will remove the Houthis from Yemen." "I do not believe that the will will be formed. I am not saying that this is impossible, but I do not think that such a will will be formed, because this would require a very serious and costly operation. Therefore, the best chance here would be to stop the Houthis in their current form and prevent them from advancing further."

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE THROAT IS CLOSED?

Could the Houthis reaching the capacity to threaten maritime traffic in the Strait create a new crisis in global trade and supply chains?

Dr. Serhan Afacan pointed out that the consequences of a crisis in Babülmandep could be as critical as the Strait of Hormuz. Afacan stated that a significant part of international trade reaches from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and from there to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal, and said, "Considering that the volume of products and trade passing through Babülmandep is higher, if the strait is closed, such a move would cause a huge crisis. The alternative to this would be to go around the south of Africa. This would bring the region to a very critical point."

Reminding that a container ship blocked the Suez Canal for days in 2021, Afacan said, "A ship remained diagonally in the Suez Canal, blocking the canal. After a difficult operation, the ship was returned to its normal course. Even in that incident, it was said that the costs incurred reached billions of dollars. Therefore, Babülmendep currently has a huge multiplier effect."

Afacan stated that Egypt's attitude should be closely monitored in terms of the developments in Babülmandep and said, "The main place to focus on here is Egypt. Because Egypt is naturally very affected by this process. However, they have not entered into this issue in a very loud voice so far. They also seem to share the American perspective a little more. In other words, they are of the opinion that we should not directly stir things up."

TRANSITION IS IN PROGRESS FOR NOW

At this stage, the Babülmendep Strait is not completely closed. Commercial ships continue their passage. However, the real issue is whether the Houthis have reached a capacity to threaten the maritime traffic here if necessary, rather than whether the strait is closed today.

Because the Houthis are not only one of the parties to the civil war in Yemen today. It is a regional actor that can launch attacks against Israel, threaten Saudi Arabia and affect the security of one of the world's most important trade routes. For this reason, the developments in the Bab al-Mandab Strait have already gone beyond the borders of Yemen. The security risk that will occur here is as critical as who will have control around the Bosphorus in the coming period.