IEA predicts a return to oversupply in the global oil market in the fourth quarter of this year

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that supply would outstrip demand in the global oil market in the fourth quarter of this year.

According to the IEA's monthly oil market report on the 13th (local time), global oil supply last month averaged 105.4 million barrels per day, up 2.3 million barrels from last September and 5.3 million barrels from August.

The IEA predicted a supply glut in the fourth quarter, saying, “The oil market is showing signs of rebalancing as global oil supply outstrips demand for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war.” In a previous report, the IEA predicted a supply shortage in the fourth quarter of this year.

Oil-producing countries in the Gulf region continued their export efforts despite attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers, leading to a recovery in overall supply.

Last month, oil supply to the Gulf region excluding Oman increased to 18.4 million barrels, 26% lower than before the war.

Crude oil increased to 15 million barrels per day, up to 82% of the pre-war level. Saudi Arabia increased crude oil production to 9.99 million barrels per day, and Iraq increased it to 4.6 million barrels, the highest in seven years.

Oil inventories observed last month increased by 52 million barrels, an average of 1.7 million barrels per day. This is the first time inventory has increased on a monthly basis since June of this year.

The IEA predicted that global oil demand this year will decrease by 2.7 million barrels to an average of 102.3 million barrels per day, and will increase by 2 million barrels per day next year.

Oil supply is expected to decrease by an average of 4.8 million barrels per day this year, and increase by 6.6 million barrels to an average of 108.1 million barrels per day next year.

The IEA predicted that tensions in the diesel market would not ease significantly until the end of next year due to attacks on Russian oil refineries. In Europe, the price of diesel last month was about $180 per barrel, about 77% higher than before the Iran war.