After the blue wave, the rapprochement with kyiv? This is in any case the “hope” of Volodymyr Zelensky, after the clear victory of the Democrats against the Republicans, during the mid-term elections organized in the United States on Tuesday, November 3. “So there is now hope, since there is this balance of forces, and we will be more supported,” said the Ukrainian president, in an interview broadcast Wednesday by the German public channel ZDF.
The passage of the Senate and the House of Representatives into the hands of the Democratic Party gives hope, according to the leader, for increased military and financial support which could “influence” Russia, at war with Ukraine since February 2022, and lead “to possible negotiations and possible peace”. In recent months, a new rapprochement between American President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has made kyiv fear a letting go on the part of Washington, while Ukraine is approaching a difficult winter in the face of intense Russian bombings.
Since his return to power, the billionaire has dried up the aid granted to the country, which is now provided by kyiv's European allies. In two years, Donald Trump has blown hot and cold on Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukrainians remember the surreal humiliation session of the Ukrainian president in the Oval Office, in February 2025, in front of television cameras around the world, as the attempt to put in place a peace plan very favorable to Moscow, at the end of 2025. In mid-October, the American president even announced a massive purchase of Russian diesel, despite international sanctions and restrictions put in place by the United States themselves.
Democrats “a little more open” in kyiv
What will a Congress with a Democratic majority actually change for kyiv? The new elected officials, who will not be in office until January 3, are rather favorable to Ukraine. “The result of the elections is good news, because there will be more open-mindedness to talk to Ukrainians,” said Gesine Weber, researcher at the Center for Security Studies in Zurich (Switzerland). The Democrats, led by Joe Biden during his presidency between 2021 and 2025, stood out for their very strong support for the Ukrainians.
However, a blue majority does not guarantee "that this new generation of Democrats will be willing to send money and weapons abroad, whatever the destination", summarizes Leslie Shedd, expert at the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, a think tank based in Washington, in an article. The reason? “Voters have clearly expressed (…) their desire to focus on domestic politics and budgetary constraints,” she adds.
The return of the Democrats, "a little more open", should not suggest that the United States will suddenly be "completely aligned" with the Europeans "in terms of security and defense policy", warns Gesine Weber. Like the Republicans, the Democrats no longer have Europe as a priority, but rather China, and more generally Asia. A movement that began several years ago. And the researcher calls for “strengthening European security and defense, but also continued support for Ukraine”, which could “motivate the United States to continue this aid.”
In this context, new financial aid to kyiv seems unlikely for the moment, as do arms deliveries not financed by the Europeans. Democrats, however, promised to launch investigations into financial agreements involving members of the Trump family or administration. They could also investigate the recent Russian diesel deal, according to the think tank German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and the United States' special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, could be targeted.
Congressional power limited by Donald Trump's veto threat
A new set of sanctions against Russia, after the one adopted by Congress in September, could be pushed by the new majority. The Democrats nevertheless face a major obstacle: the presidential veto, which Donald Trump has promised to use liberally. “I will be Mr. Veto,” the populist leader recently warned the Pod Force One podcast. “And to overcome this veto, it is necessary to have a two-thirds majority,” recalls Gesine Weber. “It would take a considerable bipartisan effort to obtain it,” adds the specialist. Not everyone will necessarily want to leave feathers there.
“Is the desire to impose sanctions [on Russia] more important than their fear of opposing, including in an open and public manner, what the president is doing?”
Gesine Weber, researcher at the Zurich Center for Security Studies
at franceinfo
Everything will depend on the Republican attitude in Congress, underlines Jörn Fleck, director of the center for Europe of the Atlantic Council, in an analysis. “Hawk” elected officials, supporters of greater American military interventionism, could raise their voices more in the face of Donald Trump’s complacency towards Moscow. They will perhaps have “greater room to maneuver to stand up to the White House,” predicts the researcher.
Foreign policy, presidential prerogative
In Washington, Donald Trump will nevertheless keep control of foreign policy. The president "has governed largely without taking Congress into account. Why would that change today?" German Chancellor Friedrich Merz openly asked Wednesday in Berlin. The area remains a strong prerogative of American presidents, as the think tank German Marshall Fund of the United States recalls. Once the midterms have passed, these leaders are used to “put more emphasis on their role as head of state” to better “consolidate their legacy”. “This trend is further accentuated when they face opposition from Congress,” points out GMF. Foreign policy then becomes “the last area on which they can exercise significant unilateral influence”.
The end of the Trump era could be part of this trend – particularly on Ukraine. Donald Trump aspires to enable peace between kyiv and Moscow, and has done so since his victorious 2024 campaign. But his conception of peace risks favoring the Kremlin to the detriment of the Ukrainians, after almost five years of Russian invasion. With the debacle of the midterms, the president "enters a 'lame duck'" phase, a "lame duck" at the end of his mandate, observes Gesine Weber. He could try to cement his legacy by accelerating his efforts to end the war. The billionaire, very lenient when it comes to the Kremlin, even made these remarks in mid-October: "Russia, frankly, behaved well towards Ukraine", obscuring the war crimes of which Russian soldiers are accused. For Gesine Weber, "he is really ready to move forward in the normalization of Russia on the international scene."
"I imagine that Donald Trump is a little more ready now to take another step towards Vladimir Putin. A 'deal', a very comprehensive agreement on Ukraine, would be something he could well sell to the United States."
Gesine Weber, researcher at the Zurich Center for Security Studies
at franceinfo
While waiting for 2028 and the prospect of a potential Democratic victory in the presidential election, kyiv will have to “establish working relations with the newly elected Democrats, while securing the support of pragmatic Republicans, whose votes will remain essential for the adoption of controversial laws,” warns Ukrainian political scientist Lesia Dubenko in an article published by the Kyiv Post. Aware of its weakness in the Trumpist camp, kyiv was keen to cultivate links with American conservative circles after the episode in the Oval Office, recalls the analyst.
