IMF lowered its growth forecast for Türkiye

IMF published the October issue of the World Economic Outlook Report. According to AA news, the report stated that the global economy has re-demonstrated its resilience, but this resilience is not evenly distributed among countries and the adaptation opportunities of economies are rapidly shrinking in the short term.

The report stated that economic activity in the first half of 2026 was better than expected, despite the ongoing pressures arising from the protracted war and trade tensions in the Middle East, and noted that the technology cycle, driven by strong investments in artificial intelligence, created an momentum that supports demand.

The report stated that the world economy is expected to grow 3.1 percent this year and 3.4 percent next year.

In its last forecast in July, the IMF predicted that the global economy would grow by 3 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. In its forecasts in April, the fund announced its global economic growth forecast as 3.1 percent for this year and 3.2 percent for next year.

GLOBAL INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO RISE

The report stated that global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7 percent in 2026, largely due to the temporary increase in energy and food prices, and then decline to 4.1 percent in 2027.

The report points out that the growth in global trade volume is expected to slow down in 2026 and stabilize in 2027, and it is stated that the negative impact of tariffs, the adaptation process in production chains and the continuing strong course of technology-related trade are effective in this outlook.

The report stated that global imbalances are expected to decrease only moderately in the medium term, and that the medium-term growth outlook continues to remain weak compared to historical standards and differ between countries.

Pointing out that the risks have a downward trend, the report warned that a long-term stalemate in the Middle East or further escalation of tension could lead to energy and food prices remaining high and volatile, inflationary pressures re-intensifying, financial and external balances deteriorating and growth suppressed.

THE GROWTH FORECAST OF THE USA THIS YEAR HAS NOT CHANGED, THE EUR AREA'S HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS

In the report, which also shared the economic growth forecasts of the countries, it was stated that the growth expectation for the US economy, which is in the group of developed economies, was maintained at 2.3 percent for this year, and was increased from 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent for next year.

The report stated that the growth forecast for the Eurozone economy was increased from 0.9 percent to 1.1 percent for this year, and that the growth forecast for the regional economy next year was kept constant at 1.2 percent.

In the report, it was reported that Germany's growth forecast was increased from 0.7 percent to 1.3 percent for this year and from 1 percent to 1.1 percent for next year, while the growth forecast for the French economy was reduced from 0.6 percent to 0.4 percent this year and from 0.9 percent to 0.7 percent for next year.

The report noted that the growth forecast for the Italian economy was increased from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent for this year and from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent for next year, and that the growth forecast for the Spanish economy was increased from 2.1 percent to 2.5 percent for this year and remained at 1.8 percent for next year.

In the report, it was noted that the growth expectation of the UK economy was increased from 1 percent to 1.3 percent for this year and decreased from 1.3 percent to 1.2 percent for next year, the growth forecast of the Canadian economy was maintained at 1.1 percent for this year and 1.7 percent for next year, and the growth forecast of the Japanese economy was increased from 0.6 percent to 0.7 percent for this year and kept constant at 0.7 percent for next year.

CHINA'S GROWTH FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED

In the IMF report, it was reported that the growth expectation for the Chinese economy in the emerging markets and developing economies group was reduced from 4.6 percent to 4.5 percent for this year and from 4.1 percent to 4 percent for next year.

The report noted that the growth forecast for the Indian economy this year was increased from 6.4 percent to 7 percent, and the forecast for next year was increased from 6.7 percent to 7 percent, while the growth expectation for the Russian economy was reduced from 1.1 percent to 0.9 percent for this year and next year.

TURKISH ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 2.7 PERCENT THIS YEAR

The report stated that the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 2.7 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year.

In its forecasts in July, the IMF had predicted that the Turkish economy would grow by 2.9 percent in 2026 and 3.6 percent in 2027.

It was noted that Türkiye's 2026 year-end inflation forecast is expected to be 31.2 percent and 2027 year-end forecast is expected to be 26.5 percent. *The photo of the news was provided by AP.