India’s retail inflation jumps to 5.54% in September, above estimates

India's headline inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, adding pressure on the country's central bank to further tighten monetary policy.

The consumer price index print was slightly above economists' expectations of 5.40%, according to a Reuters poll. Inflation has been on the rise for 11 straight months in the world's fastest-growing economy and has touched a 22-month high in September.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India raised its interest rates for the first time since 2023, joining several major central banks in tightening monetary policy in a bid to arrest accelerating inflation. India's central bank also said that in the "current conditions" further rate cuts were "off the table in the near term" and policy action could either be a rate hike or a pause.

India is among the countries most vulnerable to the supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. It imports nearly 85% of its fuel needs, and before the Iran war it heavily relied on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices have been elevated due to the tensions in the Middle East. Experts, however, predict that prices will remain volatile in the near term amid concerns over the Middle East conflict and the impact of Hurricane Isaias.

India's central bank expects core inflation to be at 4.4% for the financial year ending March 2027 and headline inflation at 5.2%, which is higher than the RBI's medium-term target of 4%.

The RBI raised India's economic growth estimate by 40 basis points to 7.1% but cautioned that protracted geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, tightening of financial conditions and elevated international commodity prices would likely weigh on economic activity.

Food prices in particular and India's rural economy also face an added risk from the Super El Nino, with the country receiving its lowest rainfall in over a decade during June to September, a key season for its largely rain-fed farms and reservoirs.

The rainfall was the fourth lowest since 2001, and the 13th driest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department. Several parts of key farm states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana are facing extreme drought conditions.

HSBC said in a report on Oct. 7 that it expects another rate hike in December, a day after the RBI policy action. "This may not be a deep tightening cycle, but a tightening cycle it is," the analysts said, adding that the September retail inflation data is likely to show a "sizeable headline pop."