India stands to benefit from a $22 billion market

The China-India-Brazil market for weight-loss drugs could grow to $22 billion by 2035 from $6.6 billion currently, J.P. Morgan estimated, as improving affordability and broader access drive adoption in largely untapped patient populations.

The addressable market could grow at an annual rate of 15% through 2035, J.P. Morgan analysts led by Yang Huang said in a note on Friday, given the countries' large diabetes and obesity burdens.

GLP-1 drugs, such as Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, have become some of the most sought-after medicines for weight-loss and diabetes treatment globally.

China and India are home to some of the world's largest diabetes patient populations, accounting for more than 25% and 15% of global diagnosed cases, respectively, while about 12% of Brazilian adults have diabetes, according to J.P. Morgan.

The three countries also face a growing obesity burden. China's overweight and obese population could exceed 65% by 2030, while India's adult obesity rate is projected to reach 11% by 2035.

"GLP-1 is transitioning from a developed-market growth theme to a broader global access story..." the analysts said.

"With patent cliffs, generic launches and policy-engineered price cuts now improving GLP-1 affordability, the three markets are converging on the same destination."

GLP-1's uptake in many emerging markets has remained low due to affordability concerns. Penetration is below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India, versus 4%-5% in the US, according to the note.

While Brazil is currently the largest of the three markets, obesity-drug penetration is projected to reach only 7%-8% of its obese population by 2035, compared with about 30% in the US.

J.P. Morgan expects China to overtake Brazil by 2027, with its market reaching $13.7 billion by 2035, versus $8 billion for Brazil, supported by its large diabetes burden and wider reimbursement for GLP-1 therapies.

For India, the smallest of the three markets, conservative attitudes toward GLP-1 drugs, alongside affordability concerns, remain key barriers to adoption, J.P. Morgan said, as hesitancy around injectables and slow-shifting cultural attitudes persist.

The brokerage highlighted China's Innovent, Divi's Laboratories and Torrent Pharmaceuticals in India, and Brazil's RD Saude as its key stocks to play the GLP-1 growth theme.