Inflation up again? The National Bank of Poland showed the latest forecasts

Inflation will increase in 2027

On Friday, the National Bank of Poland published the "Inflation Report", containing a projection of inflation and gross domestic product (GDP). According to the central projection path, CPI inflation is expected to be as follows:

2026: 3.1 percent

2027: 4.2 percent

2028: 2.8 percent

This means that after the expected drop in inflation in 2026, there will be a significant increase in inflation the following year. Only in 2028 will price dynamics decline again.

The NBP projection is a forecast prepared assuming unchanged interest rates.

More expensive raw materials affect prices in Poland

In the report, the central bank drew attention to the increase in prices of energy and agricultural raw materials on global markets. As indicated, since the publication of the previous projection in July, both types of raw materials have increased in price again.

"These conditions not only result in a significantly faster increase in domestic energy prices in 2026-2027, but also translate, with a delay, into a higher path of core inflation and food prices" - explained in the "Inflation Report".

At the same time, NBP emphasizes that in 2028 the impact of these factors should be smaller. The expected drop in prices of energy raw materials is expected to contribute to this. As a result, the revision of the CPI inflation forecast compared to the July projection will be less pronounced in this period.

The NBP also presented a GDP growth forecast

The report also contains predictions regarding the growth rate of the Polish economy. According to the central projection path, GDP will increase:

in 2026: by 3.6 percent

in 2027: by 2.8 percent

in 2028: by 2.8 percent

As emphasized by the National Bank of Poland, the forecast economic growth path for 2026-2028 is similar to the predictions presented in the previous forecasting round. This means that the central bank did not significantly change its assessment of the growth prospects of the Polish economy, although it updated its inflation forecasts.