Iran threatens escalation after US attacks on oil tankers

After the American attacks on three Iranian oil tankers, Tehran threatened to escalate the conflict. “The time for mirror-image answers is over,” Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a speech distributed on his Telegram channel on Sunday. “From now on, any attack on Iran’s interests and security will receive a faster, fiercer and more painful response.”

Iran had previously tried to deal a significant blow to the United States by, according to its own statements, firing missiles at an American aircraft carrier and a destroyer. The Revolutionary Guard claimed on Saturday that the ships had suffered damage and had withdrawn. The US military did not confirm any hits, but confirmed the attack and then said it bombed three Iranian oil tankers. It released footage of a sinking ship that it identified as M/T Kyolo. The commander of the American regional command, Centcom, Brad Cooper, said: "We will not hesitate to defend American forces and, if necessary, destroy Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet."

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In retaliation, a few hours later, the Revolutionary Guard Navy said it fired on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and three ships with ties to the United States. She also published a video with surveillance footage of ships to warn them against sailing through the strait with the help of the US military. At its core, the conflict continues to be about control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, Washington officials told CNN that American warships had escorted 40 merchant ships through the strait in one day. Iran denies this.

Ghalibaf: Iranians tolerate hardship, but not mismanagement

Both sides are also hoping to use economic pressure to persuade the other side to make concessions. Iran has expressed interest in returning to the memorandum signed in June under certain conditions. According to media reports, America has ruled this out from Tehran. President Donald Trump is only willing to reach a broader deal that includes the Iran nuclear deal, they say.

The American naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting oil for weeks. However, the country still has tens of millions of barrels of oil at sea that were shipped before the sea blockade. The blockade also makes imports more expensive and drives the inflation rate in Iran to up to 80 percent. This is hitting the population so hard that Ghalibaf called on the government on Sunday to take urgent countermeasures. Iranians can tolerate hardship but not mismanagement, he said.

Tehran is betting that high gasoline prices in the United States will hurt Trump more as the November midterm elections get closer. At the same time, Tehran expects that America will significantly intensify its military action after the elections. Iran assumes that Trump is currently holding back because the war, which he refuses to call it that, is highly unpopular with the American public.

Washington sanctions a Turkish bank

Meanwhile, the United States is increasing pressure on Iran's neighbors to restrict economic ties with the country. On Friday, the Treasury Department in Washington imposed sanctions on the small Turkish investment bank Golden Global Bank and two of its subsidiaries. The ministry accused the bank of supporting the Revolutionary Guard in financial transactions. A few days ago, America had already placed branches of an Egyptian bank in the United Arab Emirates on a sanctions list.

Observers saw the move against the Turkish bank as a warning shot, including against the Turkish government. The American ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, wrote on Platform X that it was about “closing the channels through which Tehran launders the proceeds of its activities.” The Turkish authorities “did not treat the unpleasant revelation as an affront, but instead made efforts to clarify the ambiguities and initiate a process that will strengthen transparency in the future.”