Energy crisis concerns have come to the fore again in Europe. Natural gas prices surpassed 100 euros per megawatt-hour on Wednesday, reaching their highest level in nearly four years.
According to Reuters, Netherlands-based TTF futures contracts, the main indicator of the European natural gas market, reached the level of 100 euros at noon yesterday. Prices increased by approximately 4 percent compared to the previous trading day, reaching up to 100.30 euros, according to AFP data.
The reason behind the increase in prices is the war with Iran disrupting liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from the Middle East and Europe entering the winter months with lower stocks compared to previous years.
Natural gas prices in Europe have risen to nearly three times the levels before the conflict began, according to Reuters.
Data published by the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) on October 27 revealed that Europe is facing a difficult situation in terms of energy supply before winter.
According to data, the occupancy rate of underground natural gas tanks in EU countries remained at approximately 75 percent as of October 21. This rate is below the historical averages for the same period of the year.
Europe completed the winter of 2025-2026 with only a 28 percent occupancy rate in its warehouses. In the same period of the previous year, this rate was 34 percent.
Failure to replenish stocks quickly enough during the summer months and disruptions in LNG imports caused Europe to enter the heating season with limited reserves.
According to ACER's calculations, the estimated cost of refilling natural gas tanks in 2026 has risen to 27 billion euros. The average price of gas transferred to warehouses reached the second highest level in the last 10 years.
According to experts, the current situation does not mean that Europe will experience a definite natural gas shortage in the short term. However, a harsh winter or a new supply outage can cause serious problems in the energy market.
CRISIS IN THE STRAIT OF HORmuz TRIGGERS PRICES
One of the main reasons for the rise in natural gas prices is the war in Iran affecting the global LNG trade.
The Strait of Hormuz, which is of critical importance for the natural gas exports of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, stands out as one of the most important transit points of world energy trade.
Before the war, approximately one fifth of the global LNG supply was transported via this route.
However, restrictions on maritime traffic in the region and damage to energy facilities reduced the amount of LNG on the international market.
This has increased competition between European and Asian countries to secure available LNG shipments.
Due to supply disruptions, buyers have turned to alternative sources, while prices have become more sensitive to every new military development in the region.
BLOW ON NATURAL GAS SHIPMENT FROM QATAR TO ITALY
One of the most striking examples of the problems in the energy market was the interruptions in Qatar's LNG deliveries.
Qatar's state energy company QatarEnergy has extended the suspension of LNG deliveries to Italian energy company Edison and some of its customers in South Asia until the end of December.
According to Reuters, this decision also affects three additional LNG shipments planned to be sent to Italy.
Edison has a long-term natural gas supply agreement with Qatar of 6.4 billion cubic meters per year. This amount corresponds to approximately 10 percent of Italy's annual natural gas consumption.
Disruption of shipments further increases Europe's need for alternative natural gas sources.
EUROPE'S DEPENDENCE ON US NATURAL GAS IS INCREASING
The European Union, which is trying to reduce energy imports from Russia, has become increasingly dependent on purchases from the United States in recent years.
According to ACER's data, US-sourced LNG accounts for approximately 30 percent of the EU's total natural gas supply. The share of Russian gas is approximately 11 percent.
On the other hand, a significant amount of LNG could not be shipped from Qatar to the EU during the summer months. The union's total LNG imports also decreased by 14 percent.
However, just because Europe buys more gas from the US and other suppliers does not mean that the problem will be solved in a short time.
In the global LNG market, shipments can be directed to buyers offering the highest price. Therefore, European countries have to compete with Asian buyers.
Experts point out that even if there is no physical shortage of natural gas, limited global supply may keep prices at high levels for a long time.
THE CLAIM THAT THE USA MAY LAUNCH A NEW ATTACK ON IRAN
Another development that increased the uncertainty in the energy markets was the news that the USA and Israel may launch new attacks against Iran.
According to the Wall Street Journal's news dated October 28, the Washington administration warned the Arab countries in the Gulf to prepare for the possibility of a short-term but intense military operation against Iran after the US midterm elections to be held on November 3.
The news claimed that US President Donald Trump has not yet made his final decision, but that attack options against Iran's infrastructure and nuclear facilities are being evaluated.
ABC News reported on October 22, based on two Israeli officials, that the US and Israel were working on the possibility of restarting joint military operations against Iran.
The White House had previously announced that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections, but did not exclude the possibilities after the elections.
However, it is feared that a possible escalation will further negatively affect energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz.
HIGH BILLS AND PRODUCTION INTERRUPTIONS ARE AHEAD
The sharp rise in natural gas prices creates a new cost pressure on households and industrial enterprises in Europe.
The increase in wholesale natural gas prices is not reflected in consumer bills at the same pace in every country. However, the persistence of prices for a long time can increase the supply costs of energy companies and increase the natural gas and electricity bills paid by households.
The use of natural gas in electricity generation also widens the impact of price increases.
Especially industrial organizations with high energy consumption are directly affected by the developments.
According to Reuters, some companies operating in the fertilizer, chemical and steel sectors have started to reduce their production due to increasing energy costs.
The rise in energy prices also increases the costs of transportation, food and other basic consumer products, strengthening the concern that a new wave of inflation may occur in Europe.
ENERGY CRISIS MAY EXTEND TO 2027
Experts warn that high natural gas prices in Europe may not be limited to the upcoming winter months.
Even if the war in Iran ends and the winter season is milder than expected, Europe is likely to face higher natural gas prices for at least another year, according to a Reuters analysis dated October 12.
The main reason for this is the need to refill the tanks after the natural gas will be consumed during the winter months.
European countries may also face high supply costs in 2027 due to limited LNG supply and increasing competition with Asia.
In addition, the European Union plans to ban Russian LNG imports from January 2027, which will necessitate new regulations in energy supply.
However, how prices will progress in the coming period will depend on the course of the war in Iran, the resumption of energy shipments from the Middle East and the weather conditions in the winter months.
WILL THE 2022 ENERGY CRISIS HAPPEN AGAIN?
The fact that natural gas prices in Europe exceeded 100 euros per megawatt-hour has brought the energy crisis in 2022 to the agenda again.
Following the Russia-Ukraine war, natural gas prices in Europe rose to historical levels, and energy costs had a negative impact on both industrial production and the budgets of millions of households.
Although current prices have not yet reached record levels in 2022, low stocks, global LNG supply shortages and conflicts in the Middle East pose significant risks for Europe's energy security.
According to experts, the decisive factor in the coming months will be how long the interruptions in energy shipments will last and at what cost Europe will be able to supply the natural gas it needs throughout the winter.
