Iran-US Nuclear Deal Faces Major Hurdles, Expert Says
Quick Look
- An expert highlights the "nuclear section" as a major challenge to the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, citing Iran's right to uranium enrichment and US demands for verification.
- Israel and Lebanon are seen as delicate external factors.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
A memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran was signed, calling for an immediate ceasefire. The nuclear component is seen as a significant challenge to its implementation.
MOSCOW, June 19. /TASS/. The "nuclear section" of the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran represents one of the most significant challenges to its successful implementation, according to Marat Zembatov, Director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies at the Institute of Public and Municipal Administration at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
"The nuclear component remains one of the primary risks at this critical juncture," Zembatov explained to TASS. "While Iran affirms its renunciation of nuclear weapons development, it continues to assert its right to uranium enrichment, which remains a key point in ongoing negotiations. The United States will likely insist on verification measures - such as stockpile limitations, IAEA access, and a sanctions dismantlement schedule acceptable to Congress. Meanwhile, Iran seeks formal recognition of the peaceful nature of its nuclear program and the continuation of its activities."
Zembatov expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of extending negotiations if necessary. "Achieving a comprehensive deal within the 60-day timeframe is conceivable, but it demands a level of discipline and flexibility that may be challenging for Washington, Tehran, Israel, and regional partners, especially at this critical moment," he warned.
The analyst highlighted that Israel and Lebanon remain the most delicate external factors influencing the deal's stability. "Israel is not a convenient partner for American diplomacy. There is concern that the agreement could bolster Iran’s regional influence and restrict Israel’s freedom of action along its borders with Lebanon. Any escalation in these areas could threaten the broader ceasefire and regional stability," he noted.
While acknowledging that the signed memorandum has contributed to de-escalating tensions, Zembatov emphasized that it "has not yet laid the groundwork for sustainable peace." Its ultimate success will depend on tangible steps taken by all parties - supported by financial aid, clear language regarding Iran’s nuclear program, and a managed situation in Lebanon.
About the Memorandum
Earlier this week, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding calling for an immediate ceasefire across all fronts, including in Lebanon. Notably, Israel did not participate in the negotiations. The Swiss Foreign Ministry’s press service reported that the planned US-Iran talks in Buergenstock, Switzerland, scheduled for June 19, have been postponed and will not take place as planned.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Comprehensive deal extension beyond 60 days may be necessary.
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- Will Iran's right to uranium enrichment be recognized?
- What verification measures will the US insist on?
- How will Israel and Lebanon's actions impact the deal?
