National Defense University Joint Warfare Institute Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Mehmet Özkan wrote about the political crisis in Spain and the background of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's early election decision for AA Analysis.
In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez surprisingly announced on October 5, 2026 that early elections would be held on November 29, 2026. Widespread protests that started after 87-year-old Mari Carmen Abascal was taken out of her house on a stretcher after she could not pay the rent, and the failure to resolve the housing crisis in the parliament are leading the country to elections. So how should we read these elections, which are as important for the country's politics as they are for European politics?
The distance between economic indicators and daily life
First of all, it would be incomplete to read this move of Sanchez through early elections only as a struggle to preserve his power. The developments are a reflection in Spain of a more comprehensive problem that is becoming increasingly evident in Europe. The most fundamental problem in Europe is that economic growth does not translate into social welfare, the representative capacity of traditional political parties is weakening, and central politics is increasingly fragmented. In the case of Spain, although the economic indicators are good, the distance from the daily life of the society forms the basis of the political instability that led to the early election decision.
The Spanish economy will grow by 2.8 percent in 2025. A growth rate of around 2.1 percent is predicted for 2026. However, the main problem of Spain, which has grown three times faster than other countries in the European region, is not that the economy is not growing, but that the social reward of growth is not felt enough. This growth, supported by tourism, the service sector and immigrant workforce, did not eliminate the problems of housing, earning a regular income and planning for the future, especially for young people. On the contrary, although unemployment has decreased compared to previous periods, it maintains its structural nature. Low productivity, insufficient wages compared to the cost of living and the deepening housing crisis in big cities limit the political response of the economic success discourse in Spain.
Origin of economic problems
The roots of Spain's economic problems date back to the 2008 global financial crisis. At that time, the collapse of the growth model based on the real estate sector seriously affected the banking system and employment. Although there was a recovery in the following years, youth unemployment, temporary employment and imbalances in the housing market turned into permanent problems. Today, especially in cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, rising rents, the pressure of tourism on the housing market and the limited supply of social housing not only erode the economic security of the middle class, but also feed the political dissatisfaction of the masses.
The immigration issue makes the picture even more complicated here. The Spanish economy needs immigrants due to its aging population and labor shortage. On the other hand, debates over irregular migration, border security and the capacity of public services fuel political polarization. The recent migration pressure, especially through Spain's territory in North Africa, Sebte (Ceuta), has led to the issue being addressed not only in economic but also in security and identity dimensions. This resulted in far-right parties turning political debates into identity politics and anti-immigration. Although there are political debates, the main contradiction here in economic terms is; It is the imbalance between the economy's need for immigrant labor and politics increasingly turning migration into a security issue.
Crisis of political confidence and Sanchez's strategy
The second major problem facing the Sanchez government is the crisis of political confidence. Corruption allegations against figures around the Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the prime minister's family have recently seriously challenged the government's position in the eyes of the public. While the legal processes continued, these allegations led to the questioning of the government's discourse of moral superiority and social justice, beyond the scope of the accusations. When the discussions around the amnesty issue for the leaders who held the independence referendum in Catalonia in 2017 and the parliamentary structure dependent on regional parties are added to this, the problem of governability deepens.
The direct trigger for the early election decision was the rejection of the government's two regulations regarding the housing crisis in the parliament. In summary, the regulation promised to limit rent increases, impose a temporary eviction ban, and limit companies' housing purchases. Because big companies control the rental market through large housing stock by purchasing houses. After the parliament rejected these measures, Sanchez wanted to move the debate from corruption allegations to the issue of social justice, placing the rising social reaction against the housing problem at the center of the election agenda. Thus, Sanchez is trying to turn the election into a choice about how Spain will be governed in the future, rather than the past performance of the government. The choice offered to the public in the early elections and the essence of the election campaign will be shaped accordingly.
Sanchez's political strategy is based on reactivating left-wing voters and placing a possible coalition of right-wing parties at the center of the election debate. However, there is an important paradox here, because some of the voters who complain about the housing crisis also blame Sanchez, who has been in power for eight years, for the crisis. Therefore, social discontent cannot be expected to automatically turn in favor of the government. That's why current public opinion polls show that the right-wing bloc formed by the right-wing People's Party (PP) and the far-right Vox party will have a significant weight in the post-election parliamentary arithmetic. However, due to Spain's electoral system, the position of regional parties and coalition negotiations, vote rates do not directly translate into the capacity to form a government. The decisive issue after the election is which political bloc can form a sustainable parliamentary majority.
Developments in Spain may also have important consequences for Europe. Considering the difficulties experienced by center politics and the tendency towards the right in France and Germany, the elections in Spain may be another indicator of the general transformation of European politics. The strengthening of right-wing parties may directly affect the effectiveness of the European Parliament (EP) and the EU Commission, as well as creating new balances in the European Union's (EU) discussions on migration, climate, social policy and security. Additionally, Spain's Mediterranean policies and relations with Morocco, Algeria and Latin America will also be affected by the political changes in Madrid.
The bottom line is that what is happening in Spain is not just a government crisis, but the inability of economic growth to produce political legitimacy because it does not contribute to social welfare. The test before Spain is to restore manageability in a fragmented political structure while closing the gap between economic indicators and social expectations. For this reason, the elections to be held on November 29, 2026 will be a turning point that will determine not only who will come to power, but also how Spain will be governed in the coming period and intra-European political balances.
