Israel election: Netanyahu-led bloc holds lead with nearly 90% of votes counted

With nearly 90% of votes counted, the pro-Netanyahu bloc is just ahead of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, but neither grouping is expected to win a majority, with tough coalition talks ahead.

With 89.8% of ballots counted, the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to win 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 48 seats for the anti-Netanyahu alliance led by former military commander Gadi Eisenkot, according to the Central Election Committee (CEC) as reported by the Times of Israel.

That leaves both blocs far short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.

The two majority Arab parties seem set to win 19 seats between them, a record tally that beats their previous high of 15 seats.

Netanyahu has ruled out working with the Arab parties to gain a majority, but there have been signs that some parties in Eisenkot's bloc might be open to the idea, though Eisenkot himself has also previously rejected it.

The absentee ballots — "double-envelope" votes — whose count began on Thursday are not expected to materially affect the final results, despite making up almost 10% of the overall vote.

The Central Elections Commission (CEC) has said that counting of so-called double envelope ballots began early Thursday morning, according to the Times of Israel.

Such ballots are cast mostly by soldiers, prisoners and diplomats stationed abroad, as well as others unable to vote at their assigned polling stations.

According to Israeli media, the CEC is reckoning with between 430,000 and 480,000 such ballots, lower than its previous prediction of some 600,000 but still representing just under 10% of votes cast.

This could theoretically still impact seat distribution to a considerable extent.

The Times of Israel also cited the CEC as saying that not all regular votes have been completely counted.

A full vote count is tentatively expected by Thursday afternoon, although the official finalized results will not be issued until November 4.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, told reporters in New York that he hopes a new Israeli government will "change course massively" and respect international law.

"The message is: don't continue the current course of warfare where you think you are above international law, because I think that's what we have frankly seen in the current environment," Türk said, as relayed by the AFP news agency.

"Israel has its obligations under international law, international humanitarian law, international human rights law, and they need to respect them," he said. "And I hope that the next government will do precisely that and change course massively."

Türk also said in a statement on Monday that Israel's operation in recent days in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron raised serious concerns about "unnecessary and disproportionate" use of force.

He said that more than 2,000 people had been displaced, with homes and commercial property destroyed and free movement impeded by the lockdown.

"Collective punishment is a grave violation of international law," Türk said. "Threats to empty and erase entire neighborhoods also raise serious concerns of ethnic cleansing."

Omid Nouripour, one of the deputy speakers in Germany's Bundestag parliament, has told DW that the high turnout in Israel was a testament to the strength of the country's democracy.

"For now, of course, we do not know what the coalition-building will look like, but the people have put their trust in democracy," Nouripour said. "Above all, Arab Israelis have trusted democracy and gone to the polls in droves."

Speaking to DW's Rosalia Romaniec, as he accompanies German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on his state visit to China, Nouripour also said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's and other right-wing parties' religiously-charged campaign strategy appeared to have backfired.

"This big campaign from Netanyahu's camp, first and foremost against the Arab Israelis, has on the one hand mobilized people to such an extent that there is no longer a majority for this camp," he said.

Nouripour, a former Green party co-leader, has been a Bundestag member for 20 years. Born in Tehran, his family moved from Iran to Germany when he was a teenager.

Israel's election has produced no clear winner, leaving both Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot short of a path to power. Israel could now be facing weeks of political uncertainty.

A new Israeli government is unlikely to bring big changes on controversial topics like Palestinian statehood and Israeli troops in Lebanon and Syria, experts say.

Some small positives may be possible though.

The Central Elections Commission (CEC) estimates that there are still between 430,000 and 480,000 so-called "double envelope" ballots to count, according to Israeli media.

These are cast primarily by soldiers, prisoners and diplomats stationed abroad, as well as others unable to vote at their designated polling stations.

This estimate is lower than the CEC's previous prediction of around 600,000 but it remains subject to change.

Such ballots are still being received and processed, and officials also have to double-check that the individuals sending them in have not also voted at a physical polling station on election day.

Because of these complications, they tend to be among the last votes to be counted.

A full vote count is tentatively expected by tomorrow afternoon, although the official finalized results will only follow on November 4.

If the CEC's estimated range is roughly correct, this group of ballots would equate to not very far shy of 10% of the total number of votes cast. As such, they have at least the theoretical potential to impact the seat distribution quite considerably.

President Isaac Herzog, who will have a key role in choosing someone to try to put together the next government, has urged all parties to "come with an open mind" when the time for negotiations comes.

"I will receive the official election results next week," Herzog said. "I wil then begin the process of the consultations here, hearing from each and every fraction, asking questions, and holding discussions."

Typically the president chooses the leader of the party with the most votes to try to form a government although he is not required to follow this convention. That nominee then has 42 days to try to set up a working coalition.

"One thing must be clear, and I said this before the elections too," Herzog said. "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections. So I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind."

Between April 2019 and November 2022, Israel had five general elections in rather rapid succession amid similar difficulties either forming or maintaining coalition governments.

Partial results published by the Central Elections Committee and reported by the Times of Israel newspaper showed the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 54 seats, with 84.5% of votes counted.

The opposition bloc under Gadi Eisenkot of the centrist Yashar party was on 49 seats.

Neither bloc is set to receive the 61 seats need for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, making some form of coalition likely.

The Arab-led parties — the Joint List and the United Arab List, commonly known under its Hebrew name of Ra'am — have dropped to 17 seats.

The numbers are still likely to change, particularly after a record number of absentee votes are counted.

The full tally of those will possibly not be confirmed until Friday, according to the newspaper.

The leader of the far-left Joint List, one of Israel's Arab-majority lists, has called for a "genuine Jewish-Arab partnership" to help remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"Anyone who wants to offer a substantive and genuine alternative to Netanyahu's blood-soaked government will have to talk to us to secure the path to the change that the public in Israel longs for," Yousef Jabareen told Israeli media.

"We will know how to use our political strength to advance the values we believe in," Jabareen said.

"We are ready to pave the way for the replacement of the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and [Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich — and send them home."

After most votes have been counted from Tuesday's election, the conservative Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List are projected to win a combined 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

As neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot seem likely to win a majority, the Arab parties could play a key role in the formation of the next government.

Right-wing Jewish parties in Israel have traditionally refused to cooperate with Arab parties, and Netanyahu said on Wednesday doing so would be "treasonous."

However, at least one opposition party is open to the idea, with the leader of the left-leading Democrats, Yair Golan, saying Wednesday he supported bringing Arab-led parties into a coalition.

Partial results issued by the Central Elections Committee and cited by the Times of Israel showed little movement in results with 76.8% of votes counted, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc on 54 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc on 47.

However, the United Arab List, commonly known by its Hebrew abbreviation Ra'am, saw a gain of two seats, bringing the Arab parties to 19.

The results will change as counting progresses.

Both main blocs remain short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset.

Yair Golan, the head of Israel's main left-wing party, the Democrats, has called on partners in the opposition alliance to be ready to work with Arab parties to gain a majority and take government.

"We must no longer accept [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes," he said on X.

"We have a responsibility. And we have an opportunity to form a government of change in partnership with Israel's Arab citizens," he wrote.

Arab parties have around 16 seats amid the ongoing count, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc under former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is on around 48, meaning that a coalition between them would produce the necessary majority in the Knesset.

Netanyahu's bloc had some 56 seats after around two-thirds of votes had been counted.

Several opposition parties have so far rejected working together with the Arab parties.

Partial results issued by Israel's Central Elections Committee and reported by the Times of Israel after 57.3% of votes were counted have shown the pro-Netanyahu bloc with a projected 55 seats, seven seats ahead of the anti-Netanyahu bloc with 49.

Neither side so far has the 61 seats needed to form a secure majority.