MİLLİYET.COM.TR / Israel's strategy to limit Türkiye's influence by increasing pressure in Syria has also become a matter of debate in its own security circles.
'AGGRESSIVE PLAN WILL HAVE BACKGROUND'
In the analysis titled "Aggressive plan will backfire, may strengthen Turkey" published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel, cited by the Jerusalem Post, it was stated that a policy focusing on completely eliminating Ankara's presence in Syria could harm Israel's interests.
The analysis emphasized that Israel's attacks in Syria alone will not be enough to provide a permanent effect after the Assad administration is overthrown in December 2024. INSS researchers Amal Hayek and Carmit Valensi argued that Israel should separate the different dimensions of Türkiye's activities in Syria, rather than evaluating them under a single heading.
'ALL ACCOUNTS WILL BE CORRUPTED'
In the analysis, it was evaluated that Türkiye's influence in Syria is now one of the established elements of the regional equation. According to INSS, it is unrealistic to eliminate this impact solely through military strikes.
The analysis said, "Israel's attempt to completely prevent the restructuring of the Syrian army may cause Damascus to turn more towards Ankara in security and military areas. For this reason, Israel's priority should not be to end all of Türkiye's activities in Syria, but to limit and balance Ankara's influence by identifying areas that pose a risk to its own security. Otherwise, all plans will be ruined."
'IT MAY LEAD TO DIRECT CONFLICT'
The analysis also warned that failure to support attacks against targets with low operational value with a diplomatic road map could lead the parties to a direct conflict that they do not want.
'TURKEY HAS ADVANTAGE'
One of the topics that INSS drew attention to was Türkiye's military and technical activities in northern Syria. In the analysis, it was stated that activities such as technical support, training and renewal of facilities provided to Syrian state institutions should not be evaluated in the same way as Türkiye's establishment of its own command-control infrastructure.
In the analysis, attention was also drawn to Türkiye's naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean. While it was stated that the Turkish navy has natural advantages in the region, it was stated that "Such a strong Turkish presence off the Syrian coast could radically change the balance of power in the seas."
'THE REAL RED LINE'
According to INSS, southern Syria, especially near the Israeli border, is of critical importance. In the analysis, "Our real red line is obvious. Israel should definitely not allow Turkey in southern Syria. However, it argues that the aim of limiting Türkiye's influence should focus on elements that may pose a direct threat to the Israeli border, rather than pitting the whole of Syria against it."
'PRESSURE MAY INCREASE ON TEL AVIV'
The warnings in the analysis were not limited to Türkiye's military presence. It was also emphasized that Israel's permanent military presence in Syria is not a long-term solution and that negotiations should be held with the Damascus administration regarding security arrangements.
In the analysis, “Israel's actions began to be perceived as steps that destabilize Syria. This perception may bring the Golan Heights issue back to the international agenda. "Regional and international pressure may increase on Israel to return to the lines determined in the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement," it said.
'WE CAN GIVE UP THE TRUMS WE HAVE'
Finally, according to the INSS assessment, Israel holds the buffer zone both for security purposes and as leverage to obtain concessions from Damascus.
The analysis warned that Washington could force Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone, and in such a scenario, Israel would give up its trump cards and gain limited gains in return.
