Will bombing of Russian refineries cause U.S. oil prices to soar? ISW report: Ukraine does not take the blame

On September 22, U.S. President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly. (Reuters file photo)

In an effort to ease rising domestic diesel prices, U.S. President Trump signed a diesel agreement with Russia this month and blamed Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries as the main cause of rising fuel prices. However, the latest analysis from the US think tank Institute of War Studies (ISW) shows that the attack by the Ukrainian army did not have an impact on US diesel prices. The real reason for the sharp surge in diesel prices in the United States is Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the New York Post, the latest ISW report pointed out that U.S. diesel prices have remained stable below $4 per gallon since August 2025. Even when Ukraine attacked six Russian refineries in just a few days in November 2025, U.S. diesel prices not only did not rise at that time, but showed a slight downward trend.

The ISW report pointed out that after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. diesel prices soared and hit a high of $6.53 per gallon on September 21.