Italy's population projected to fall by nearly 4 million by 2050 due to low birth rates and ageing

File photo: Tourists pose in front of the Leaning Tower of Pisa, Italy (Picture credit: AP)

Italy's population is projected to shrink by almost 4 million people by 2050, with a rapidly ageing population posing fresh challenges for the country's economy and welfare system, according to new projections released by the national statistics bureau ISTAT on Monday. Italy's resident population is expected to fall to 55 million by 2050, from 58.9 million at the start of 2025, before declining further to 45.8 million by 2080, ISTAT said, according to Reuters. The projections come as Italy continues to grapple with a long-running decline in births and a growing elderly population. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had made boosting the birth rate a government priority after taking office in 2022, but births have continued to fall.

Births remain near record lows

Births have declined steadily in Italy since 2008 and fell to around 355,000 last year, the lowest figure since the country's unification in 1861. ISTAT projected that annual births would remain broadly stable until 2030 before falling further to 335,000 by 2050. Deaths, meanwhile, are expected to rise as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age. The number of annual deaths is projected to increase from around 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058. Earlier ISTAT data showed that Italy's fertility rate had fallen to an average of 1.14 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

Elderly population set to grow sharply

The share of Italians aged 65 and above is projected to rise to 34.5% in 2050, compared with 24.7% in 2025. At the same time, the proportion of the population of working age, defined as those between 15 and 64 years, is expected to fall to 55.3% from 63.4%. A shrinking pool of workers alongside a growing number of pensioners will pose "new challenges to the economic system and welfare," ISTAT said.

Southern Italy faces steepest decline

The demographic decline is expected to vary significantly across the country. Poorer southern Italy is forecast to see the sharpest population losses, with its population falling from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050. Central and northern regions are also expected to record population declines, although the projected fall will be more modest.

Immigration has helped offset population decline

Earlier ISTAT data had shown that Italy's population stabilised after 12 years of decline, with immigration almost entirely offsetting the country's shrinking number of births. As of January 1, Italy's resident population stood at 58.94 million, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. ISTAT had said that without sustained migration inflows, Italy's population would resume shrinking, adding to long-term pressure on the labour market and public finances.

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