Never has an October been so hot, announces the Copernicus laboratory, which adds that 2026 will “probably” be the 2nd hottest year

With the monthly heat record recorded in October, Copernicus estimates that the year 2026 will "probably" be the 2nd hottest year recorded in the world. It has "around a 20% chance of equaling or exceeding 2024, currently the hottest year on record", announced the European observatory on Friday November 6, publishing its monthly bulletin.

With an average surface air temperature 1.75°C higher than pre-industrial levels, October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, ahead of October 2023.

It was also the third consecutive month to exceed the threshold of 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

“Particularly notable, the four-year average is also expected to cross this threshold of 1.5°C, which highlights the persistence of this period of global heat,” commented Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), quoted in the press release. The average global temperature over the four-year period from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed this threshold, set among the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

If it is now accepted by scientists that this threshold will be exceeded in the near future, they call for continuing to work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change, in order to limit the duration of this exceedance.

The month of October continues a period of remarkable global heat, marked by record temperatures across the globe and on the surface of the oceans.

“An El Niño phenomenon of exceptional intensity will accentuate the warming of a climate already altered by human activities,” said Samantha Burgess. This natural phenomenon is known to generate above-average temperatures across much of the globe and alter precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of drought and flooding in different regions.

In the tropical Pacific, where El Niño conditions intensified in the fall, the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly "reached a record level of +3.21°C, exceeding peaks recorded during previous very strong El Niño episodes," Copernicus detailed. The observatory adds that October 2026 also broke a monthly heat record on the ocean surface.