The electoral campaign for the 2028 presidential election began last night, shortly after 10:00 p.m. Washington time. At that moment, President Donald Trump began talking to journalists, taking their calls, accepting that his party was suffering an overwhelming defeat and washing his hands: "I was not on the ballot," he repeated to everyone, after months of maintaining just the opposite and having turned the legislative elections into a plebiscite on his management and his agenda.
The devastating defeat showed the country the weakest and most vulnerable Trump. To the Lame Duck Trump, to the Trump who will leave office in two years and who has fractured the MAGA movement. And he opened the doors to start thinking about his replacement. Twelve hours later, the vice president of the United States, JD Vance, was the first to step forward, in a direct, aggressive and, above all, very risky way. Running without saying it and in an unprecedented way, because he has done so by contradicting the president, challenging his story and shouting from the rooftops that the reason, the obvious cause of last night's 'blue tsunami' is the war in Iran. And therefore, the reason and the person ultimately responsible is Donald Trump.
Vance, who since February has been putting forward the narrative that he was almost the only one in the Administration to oppose bombing Iran, unlike, for example, Marco Rubio, has taken a gamble. He is aware that it is very difficult, impossible, to be president without the explicit support and endorsement of Donald Trump. But he also knows that he has lost initiative against Rubio, that he does not have the necessary popularity. The campaign has shown it. And that following Trump's agenda for another two years would end his aspirations. So you've made a bet.
In a very long post on his Translated: they told the president that if the voter thought of him, victory was possible.
"There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: Our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? 'No,' he told me. 'We could do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that many Trump/Vance 2024 voters are angry and planning to vote for each other. Our voters are coming out to vote, but they may not vote for us.' Well, that seems prescient. now," Vance begins.
While Trump washed his hands last night, defending his policies, especially the war in Iran, saying that it was all the fault of bad candidates, the media or that citizens have become obsessed with inflation and prices (but insisting that they supported his foreign policy), Vance takes the bull by the horns and asks the conservative world not to fool itself. "The main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguments about what happened and why. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic message was not sharp enough in the end. I'm sure that's true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone," he adds in his message pointing to Iran. Without excuses, nuances or softening.
The final part of his tweet is the most important: "The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said it last night. If you want to argue that it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do it. Argue that it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that at least is honest," he writes, trying to present his analysis as a continuation of the president's, when in reality it is an absolute amendment to it. Trump talked about Iran, yes, and said it was relevant... but he reiterated that he had no regrets and said he would do the same thing again.
In his reflection, Vance outlines this Wednesday, with the defeat hot and with no time to lose, a roadmap that he believes the party must follow to avoid crashing in 2028. A path destined for the MAGA world, with basic ideas. Trump's ideas... before returning to power.
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America first
4) Change our relationship with Israel
Vance presents it as voters' responses to questions from "one of the smartest pollsters" he knows. But it's clearly his own agenda. And settle accounts. "The four previous reasons are why many voted for Democrats. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the [Iran] conflict, it turns out that her political advice was solid. (She is also a great person)," says the vice president in reference to one of the Fox network presenters, who in recent hours has been harshly criticized for maintaining that a peace agreement with Iran could be good for the world, but that Israel was not making it easy and targeting Netanyahu.
In the last lines, Vance says that in the coming months there is going to be a lot of gaslighting and that many of the "establishment politicians will say that the solution to our misfortunes is amnesty" for illegal immigrants. "I'm open to the idea that we should change law enforcement - focusing more on companies that hire illegal labor, for example - but anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. Everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here has to start there," he says.
